黄河上游碳储存动态归因及阈值分析

武磊; 张琨伟; 曹锦佳; 贺正; 刘雪瑛

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.029

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黄河上游碳储存动态归因及阈值分析

试验研究

- 黄河上游碳储存动态归因及阈值分析
- Dynamic attribution and threshold analysis of carbon storage in upper reaches of Yellow River
- 水土保持通报 2025年45卷第2期页码：283-294
- 作者机构：
  
  山西师范大学地理科学学院,山西,太原,030031
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  山西省自然科学基金青年基金项目“基于水沙—生态响应模式的水土流失治理优化：以汾河中上游为例”(202403021222245)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.029
  中图分类号： S157.1
- 网络首发：2025-05-16，
  
  纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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武磊, 张琨伟, 曹锦佳, 等. 黄河上游碳储存动态归因及阈值分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(2):283-294.

Wu Lei, Zhang Kunwei, Cao Jinjia, et al. Dynamic attribution and threshold analysis of carbon storage in upper reaches of Yellow River[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 283-294.
武磊, 张琨伟, 曹锦佳, 等. 黄河上游碳储存动态归因及阈值分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(2):283-294. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.029.

Wu Lei, Zhang Kunwei, Cao Jinjia, et al. Dynamic attribution and threshold analysis of carbon storage in upper reaches of Yellow River[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 283-294. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.029.

摘要

[目的

]

探讨碳储动态变化及其驱动机制，为区域可持续发展和水土资源保护提供科学依据和方法借鉴。[方法

]

以青藏高原的洮河流域和黄土高原的祖厉河流域为研究区，探究了气候、植被和水沙对净初级生产力(NPP)的直接和间接效应，采用弹性系数、密度分析等方法量化了不同因素对NPP的影响阈值。[结果

]

①洮河和祖厉河流域NPP均值(以C计)分别为276.47，136.86 g/m

，空间分布差异显著。②洮河NPP受水分参量影响较大，其次为归一化植被指数(NDVI)，气温(T)和土壤侵蚀(A)均呈现负效应且相对较小；祖厉河流域NPP受NDVI和水源涵养量(W

)影响最大，T和A对NPP同样为负效应，但绝对值大于洮河流域。空间上，两个流域T和NDVI交互后对NPP分布的解释力最强。③不同方法的阈值量化结果有所差异，总体上洮河流域T和A对NPP的影响阈值更先达到，祖厉河P，NDVI和W

对NPP的影响阈值率先到达。[结论

]

不同生态—地理分异下的碳储动态变化驱动及阈值差异显著，在达到“可持续”的阈值之前，并不需要过多的人为干预，主要通过气候方面的监测即可；但在达到“限制性”阈值时，有目的的合理分配水资源、控制土壤侵蚀减缓河道输沙需要给予更多关注。

Abstract

[Objective] Carbon storage dynamics and its driving mechanism were explored aims to provide scientific basis and methodological reference for regional sustainable development as well as soil and water resource conservation. [Methods] Taking Taohe River basin in the Tibetan Plateau and Zuli River basin in the Loess Plateau as study areas

the direct and indirect effects of climate

vegetation

water and sediment on net primary productivity (NPP) were investigated. The influence threshold of different factors on NPP was quantified by means of elastic coefficient and density analysis. [Results] ① The mean NPP values (calculated by carbon) in the Taohe River and Zuli River basins were 276.47 and 136.86 g/m2

respectively

with significant spatial variations. ② In the Taohe River basin

NPP was predominantly influenced by moisture parameters (P)

followed by the normalized vegetation index (NDVI). In contrast

temperature (T) and soil erosion (A) had negative but relatively minor effects. In the Zuli River basin

NPP was primarily affected by NDVI and water retention (WR)

while T and A exhibited similar negative effects

though with a greater absolute value compared to the Taohe River basin. Spatially

the strongest explanatory power for NPP distribution was observed when T and NDVI interacted in both watersheds. ③ The threshold quantification results varied across methods. In the Taohe River basin

the thresholds for T and A effects on NPP were reached earlier

whereas in the Zuli River basin

the thresholds for P

NDVI

and WR effects on NPP were attained first. [Conclusion] The dynamics of carbon storage exhibit distinct driving forces and threshold variations under different ecological and geographical conditions. Before reaching the “sustainable” threshold

excessive human intervention is unnecessary

with climate monitoring being the primary focus. However

upon reaching the “restrictive” threshold

proactive measures such as strategic water resources allocation

soil erosion control

and mitigation of river sediment transport become essential.

关键词

Keywords

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