新质生产力与农业碳排放强度的非线性关系——基于中国省级数据分析

唐重振; 丁泽宇; 唐明慧

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.026

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新质生产力与农业碳排放强度的非线性关系——基于中国省级数据分析

试验研究

- 新质生产力与农业碳排放强度的非线性关系——基于中国省级数据分析
- Nonlinear relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity —Based on provincial data of China
- 水土保持通报 2025年45卷第2期页码：251-261
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 桂林理工大学公共管理学院,广西,桂林,541004
  2. 贺州学院经济与管理学院,广西,贺州,542899
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  广西哲学社会科学课题“广西乡村产业数字化进程中的联农带农机制研究”(2023FSH034)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.026
  中图分类号： F323;X322
- 网络首发：2025-05-16，
  
  纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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唐重振, 丁泽宇, 唐明慧. 新质生产力与农业碳排放强度的非线性关系——基于中国省级数据分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(2):251-261.

Tang Chongzhen, Ding Zeyu, Tang Minghui. Nonlinear relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity —Based on provincial data of China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 251-261.
唐重振, 丁泽宇, 唐明慧. 新质生产力与农业碳排放强度的非线性关系——基于中国省级数据分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(2):251-261. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.026.

Tang Chongzhen, Ding Zeyu, Tang Minghui. Nonlinear relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity —Based on provincial data of China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 251-261. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.026.

摘要

[目的] 探讨新质生产力与农业碳排放强度的关系，揭示其中的运行机制及区域差异，为新质生产力与绿色发展同步发展提供科学依据与数据支撑。[方法] 基于2012—2022年中国省级面板数据，采用双向固定的回归模型探讨新质生产力与农业碳排放之间的关系。进而采用门槛模型，分析城乡收入差距在影响新质生产力对农业碳排放的作用中的门槛作用。[结果] ①新质生产力与农业碳排放强度之间存在倒“N”型关系，即新质生产力对农业碳排放的作用是先下降、再上升、后下降的过程。②新质生产力对农业碳排放强度的影响存在门槛效应：城乡收入差距越小的地区，新质生产力的减排效果越强。③新质生产力对农业碳排放强度效应存在明显的区域差异，在东部地区倒“N”型关系明显，在中部地区效果并不显著，在西部地区则存在“N”型关系。[结论] 建议精准把握新质生产力阶段性特征，引导新质生产力与低碳农业发展相适应，增强新质生产力的减排效应；注重缩小城乡收入差距，以提高农民收入为手段，激励农民技术、设备升级，提升新质生产力的减排效应；明确区域间差异，引导新质生产力与各地区实际相匹配，因地制宜实现农业碳减排。

Abstract

[Objective] The relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity was explored

the operational mechanisms and regional differences were revealed

in order to provide a scientific basis and data support for the synchronization of new quality productivity and green development. [Methods] A bidirectional fixed regression model was used to explore the relationship between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emissions using provincial panel data of China from 2012 to 2022. A threshold model was then used to analyze the role of the rural-urban income gap in the effect of new quality productivity forces on agricultural carbon emissions. [Results] ① An inverted N-shaped relationship was found between new quality productivity forces and agricultural carbon emission intensity; that is

the effect of new quality productivity forces on agricultural carbon emissions first decreased

then increased

and finally decreased again. ② A threshold effect exists: regions with smaller urban-rural income gaps exhibit stronger emission reduction effects from new quality productivity forces. ③ The effect of new quality productive forces on agricultural carbon emission intensity differed among regions. The inverted “N” relationship was strong in the eastern region and insignificant in the central region

showing an “N” type relationship in the western region. [Conclusion] It is recommend obtaining an in-depth understanding of the phases of the characteristics of new quality productivity forces to facilitate their alignment with the development of low-carbon agriculture and enhance the emission reduction effects of new quality productive. The urban-rural income gap should be narrowed by increasing farmer incomes

thereby incentivizing technological and equipment upgrades among farmers and strengthening the emission reduction effect of new quality productive forces. Furthermore

regional differences should be recognized to help align new quality productive forces with the actual conditions in various regions and reduce agricultural carbon emission in agreement to local conditions.

关键词

Keywords

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