甘肃省白龙江径流演变特征及归因分析

李亚鹏; 张文睿; 孙栋元; 李斌; 陈学林; 高国琰

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.024

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甘肃省白龙江径流演变特征及归因分析

试验研究

- 甘肃省白龙江径流演变特征及归因分析
- Runoff evolution characteristics and attribution analysis of Bailong River in Gansu Province
- 水土保持通报 2025年45卷第2期页码：232-240
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 甘肃省农村饮水安全管理办公室,甘肃,兰州,730000
  2. 甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,甘肃,兰州,730070
  3. 甘肃省陇南水文水资源勘测中心,甘肃,陇南,742500
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  甘肃省高等学校青年博士基金项目“疏勒河流域社会生态水文演变过程研究”(2022QB-070);甘肃省省级生态文明建设重点研发专项(24YFFF002);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK092);西汉水流域水文特性研究(甘水科外发〔2017〕76号)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.024
  中图分类号： P333
- 网络首发：2025-05-16，
  
  纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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李亚鹏, 张文睿, 孙栋元, 等. 甘肃省白龙江径流演变特征及归因分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(2):232-240.

Li Yapeng, Zhang Wenrui, Sun Dongyuan, et al. Runoff evolution characteristics and attribution analysis of Bailong River in Gansu Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 232-240.
李亚鹏, 张文睿, 孙栋元, 等. 甘肃省白龙江径流演变特征及归因分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(2):232-240. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.024.

Li Yapeng, Zhang Wenrui, Sun Dongyuan, et al. Runoff evolution characteristics and attribution analysis of Bailong River in Gansu Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(2): 232-240. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.02.024.

摘要

[目的

]

综合分析甘肃白龙江径流量突变性及持续性，定量解析气候与人类活动对年径流量变化的贡献率，旨在为白龙江流域水资源规划与管理提供理论依据。[方法

]

基于白龙江流域1961—2021年白云站、舟曲站、武都站和碧口站4个水文站逐年、月降雨量和径流量数据，采用Mann-Kendall趋势、滑动T检验、R/S分析和双累积曲线等方法对白龙江径流量演变特征进行研究及归因分析。[结果

]

①白龙江各站年径流量呈现不同程度减小趋势，且减少率从上游到下游呈增大趋势(碧口站〔-3.07×10

/(10 a)〕＞武都站〔-1.49×10

/(10 a)〕＞舟曲站〔-4.20×10

/(10 a)〕＞白云站〔-3.40×10

/(10 a)〕的线性倾向率)。②白龙江上游最大月径流量发生在9月，中下游发生在7月，武都站年内径流极值比最大。③流域径流量突变点主要发生在1969年和1994年，所有站两次突变径流变化率均为负值，即突变前径流量高于多年平均值，突变后相反。④Hurst指数(H)表明白龙江中下游未来一段时间流域径流量将持续下降(H=0.53～0.77)。⑤气候变化对流域径流量减小的贡献率为94.85%，人类活动影响的贡献率为5.15%。[结论

]

白龙江流域发生突变以后径流产生更为显著的下降趋势，且未来持续此趋势。

Abstract

[Objective] The variability and persistence of runoff in the Bailong River

Gansu Province were comprehensively analyzed

and the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to annual runoff variations were analyzed quantitatively

in oreder to provide a theoretical basis for water resources planning and management in the Bailong River basin. [Methods] Based on annual and monthly rainfall and runoff data from Baiyun

Zhouqu

Wudu

and Bikou Stations in the Bailong River basin from 1961 to 2021

the Mann-Kendall trend test

sliding T-test

R/S analysis

and double cumulative curve method were employed to examine the evolution characteristics of runoff and identify the driving factors behind these changes. [Results] ① The annual runoff at Bailong River stations exhibited a declining trend to varying degrees

with runoff losses increasing from upstream to downstream. The linear tendency rates of runoff decline were Bikou station 〔-3.07×108 m3/(10 a)〕＞ Wudu station 〔-1.49×108 m3/(10 a)〕＞ Zhouqu station 〔-4.20×107 m3/(10 a)〕＞ Baiyun station 〔-3.40×107 m3/(10 a)〕. ② The maximum monthly runoff in the upper reaches of the Bailong River occurred in September

whereas in the middle and lower reaches

it peaked in July. Wudu station exhibited the highest extreme ratio of annual maximum runoff. ③Abrupt change points in runoff primarily occurred in 1969 and 1994

with negative change rates at all stations. This indicates that before the abrupt change

runoff was higher than the annual average

whereas after the abrupt change

it was lower. ④The Hurst index (H=0.53～0.77) suggests that runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Bailong River will continue to decline in the future. ⑤ Climate change contributed 94.85% to the reduction in watershed runoff

while human activities accounted for 5.15%. [Conclusion] The runoff in the Bailong River basin has shown a significant downward trend following abrupt changes

and this trend is expected to persist in the future.

关键词

Keywords

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