基于土地利用变化的大汶河流域碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析

贾艳艳; 张芳源; 刘新龙

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.027

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基于土地利用变化的大汶河流域碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析

试验研究

- 基于土地利用变化的大汶河流域碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析
- Assessment and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage in Dawen River basin based on land-use change
- 水土保持通报 2025年45卷第1期页码：254-263
- 作者机构：
  
  山东农业大学林学院,山东,泰安,271018
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  山东省自然科学基金项目“基于生态系统服务的流域生态安全格局构建及演变研究：以黄河下游大汶河流域为例”(ZR2021QD124);国家自然科学基金项目(32301658)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.027
  中图分类号： F301.2;X171.1
- 纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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贾艳艳, 张芳源, 刘新龙. 基于土地利用变化的大汶河流域碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(1):254-263.

Jia Yanyan, Zhang Fangyuan, Liu Xinlong. Assessment and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage in Dawen River basin based on land-use change[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 254-263.
贾艳艳, 张芳源, 刘新龙. 基于土地利用变化的大汶河流域碳储量评估及其脆弱性分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(1):254-263. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.027.

Jia Yanyan, Zhang Fangyuan, Liu Xinlong. Assessment and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage in Dawen River basin based on land-use change[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 254-263. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.027.

摘要

[目的

]

探明大汶河流域碳储量对土地利用变化的响应及其脆弱性，为促进流域绿色可持续发展和土地利用优化管控提供科学参考。[方法

]

基于土地利用数据，运用InVEST模型评估2000—2020年大汶河流域碳储量对土地利用转移的响应，并采用潜在影响指数(PI)评估流域生态系统碳储量服务的脆弱性。[结果

]

①2000—2020年，研究区用地结构发生明显变化，主要表现为耕地大量减少(316.44 km

)，建设用地急剧增加(523.98 km

)，耕地转变为建设用地是主要的土地转移类型。②2000—2020年，研究区碳储量减少1.09×10

t，其中耕地转变为建设用地是碳储量减少的主导因素；碳储量空间分布呈“整体上北高南低、局部区域显著高或显著低”的空间格局。③2000—2020年，研究区土地利用强度指数增加8.12，前10 a和后10 a的潜在影响指数分别为-1.33和-1.42，流域生态系统碳储量服务脆弱性逐渐增强。[结论

]

大汶河流域耕地、草地和林地的减少和建设用地的扩张对该流域碳储量及其脆弱性影响显著，未来应将碳储量作为土地利用规划的重要参考因素，以实现碳储量功能最优权衡。

Abstract

[Objective] The response and vulnerability of carbon storage to land-use change in the Dawen River basin were analyzed in order to provide a reference for promoting the green and sustainable development of the basin and the land-use optimization management and control. [Methods] Based on land use data

the InVEST model was used to study the impact of land-use change on carbon storage evolution in the Dawen River basin from 2000 to 2020

and the potential impact index (PI) was used to assess the vulnerability of ecosystem carbon storage. [Results] ① During 2000—2020

the land-use structure of the study area changed significantly

with a sharp decline in cultivated land (316.44 km2) and a sharp increase in construction land (523.98 km2). The conversion of cultivated land into construction land was the primary type of land transfer. ② During 2000—2020

the carbon storage decreased by 1.09×107 t

and the transfer of cultivated land to construction land was the leading factor in the decrease. The spatial distribution characteristics of basin carbon storage were “overall higher in the north and lower in the south

and significantly higher or significantly lower in local areas.” ③ During 2000—2020

the land use degree index increased by 8.12. The PI for the first and last 10 years was -1.33 and -1.42

respectively

indicating that the vulnerability of carbon storage services increased. [Conclusion] The reduction in cultivated land

grassland and forest land

and the expansion of construction land in the Dawen River basin have significant effects on carbon storage and its vulnerability. In future

carbon storage should be considered as an important reference factor in land-use planning to achieve an optimal balance of carbon storage functions.

关键词

Keywords

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