1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测

刘小丹; 李垒; 张洪; 薛万来; 刘可暄; 薛晨旺

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测

试验研究

- 1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测
- Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035
- 水土保持通报 2025年45卷第1期页码：244-253
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京市水科学技术研究院流域水环境与生态技术北京市重点实验室,北京,100048
  2. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京,100085
  3. 北京市密云水库管理处,北京,101512
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项“永定河(北京段)河流廊道生态修复技术与示范”(2018ZX07101005-03);北京市科技计划课题“密云水库水生态安全优化调控技术体系研究与示范”(Z221100005222013);2024年北京水务科技开放项目(SK-2024-001-STS)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026
  中图分类号： X87;F301.2
- 纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
刘小丹, 李垒, 张洪, 等. 1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(1):244-253.

Liu Xiaodan, Li Lei, Zhang Hong, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 244-253.
刘小丹, 李垒, 张洪, 等. 1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(1):244-253. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026.

Liu Xiaodan, Li Lei, Zhang Hong, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 244-253. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026.

摘要

[目的

]

开展1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测研究，为流域“双碳”目标下山水林田湖草沙一体化保护修复和流域生态补偿标准优化提供科学依据。[方法

]

采用InVEST-PLUS模型对该流域1985—2020年碳储量时空演变格局进行分析，并预测2035年3种情景(自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护)下的碳储量变化趋势。[结果

]

①1985—2020年，密云水库流域生态系统碳储量呈现持续增长趋势，35 a间碳储量增加2.35×10

t，其中贡献程度最大的为林地，其次为草地和耕地，共占总碳储量约98%。②2035年，3种模拟情景下流域碳储量仍均趋于增长，相对来说在生态保护情景下，由于林地面积增长较多，导致碳储量保持较高水平。③流域碳储量呈现出“中南部高，西部、东北低”的空间格局，中南部对应流域山区地貌，为水源涵养核心区域，森林覆盖率较高，而西部、东北部主要分布草地、耕地及城镇建设用地等，相对碳储量偏低。[结论

]

碳储量与土地利用空间格局具有一致性，可通过生态建设增加林草地、控制林地转出及合理控制建设用地扩张来促进生态系统碳储量巩固与提升。

Abstract

[Objective] Spatial and temporal succession patterns and predictions of ecosystem carbon storage in the Miyun Reservoir basin from 1985 to 2035 were conducted to provide a scientific basis for the integrated protection and restoration of mountains

rivers

forests

fields

lakes

grasslands

and sands and the optimization of ecological compensation standards under the goal of “double carbon” in the basin. [Methods] The InVEST-PLUS model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the basin during 1985—2020

and the changing trend of carbon storage under three scenarios (natural development

cultivated land protection

and ecological protection) in 2035 was predicted. [Results] ① During 1985—2020

the ecosystem carbon storage of Miyun Reservoir basin showed a continuous growth trend

and the carbon storage increased by 4.03×107 t in 35 years. The largest contributors to carbon storage were forest land

grassland

and cultivated land

which accounted for approximately 98% of the total carbon storage. ② In 2035

the carbon storage of the basin will tend to increase under the three simulation scenarios. In the protection scenario

owing to the increase in forestland area

carbon storage remains at a high level. ③ Carbon storage in the basin showed a spatial pattern of 'higher in the south-central part and lower in the west and northeast’. The south-central part corresponds to the mountainous landform of the basin

which was the core area of water conservation

and the forest coverage rate was higher

while the west and northeast were mainly distributed in grassland

cultivated land

and urban construction land

with relatively lower carbon storage. [Conclusion] Carbon storage is consistent with the spatial pattern of land use. The consolidation and improvement of ecosystem carbon storage can be promoted by increasing forests and grasslands through ecological construction

controlling the transfer of forest land

and reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land.

关键词

Keywords

references

张斌,李璐,夏秋月,等.“三线” 约束下土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响: 以武汉城市圈为例[J].生态学报,2022,42(6):2265-2280. Zhang Bin, Li Lu, Xia Qiuyue, et al. Land use change and its impact on carbon storage under the constraints of “three lines”: A case study of Wuhan City circle [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(6):2265-2280.

Tang Xuli, Zhao Xia, Bai Yongfei, et al. Carbon pools in China’s terrestrial ecosystems: New estimates based on an intensive field survey [J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018,115(16):4021-4026.

孙一帆,徐梦菲,汪霞.基于InVEST-PLUS模型的郑州市碳储量时空演变及空间自相关分析[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(5):374-384. Sun Yifan, Xu Mengfei, Wang Xia. Spatial-temporal evolution of carbon storage and spatial autocorrelation analysis in Zhengzhou City based on InVEST-PLUS model [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023,43(5):374-384.

朱诗柔,牟凤云,黄淇,等.2000—2030年多级流域尺度下重庆市林地景观格局碳储量变化[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(3):356-366. Zhu Shirou, Mou Fengyun, Huang Qi, et al. Changes of forest landscape carbon storage pattern in Chongqing City under multi-level watershed scales during 2000—2030[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2024,44(3):356-366.

李彦旻,沈育生,王世航.基于土地利用变化的安徽省陆地碳排放时空特征及效应[J].水土保持学报,2022,36(1):182-188. Li Yanmin, Shen Yusheng, Wang Shihang. Spatio-temporal characteristics and effects of terrestrial carbon emissions based on land use change in Anhui Province [J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022,36(1):182-188.

布威阿依谢姆·吐合提,阿布都热合曼·哈力克,姚凯旋,等.艾比湖流域LUCC驱动的碳储量时空动态特征与多情景预测[J].华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2024,45(4):501-513. Buweiayxiemu Tuheti, Abudureheman Halike, YAO Kaixuan, et al.Spatio-temporal dynamics characteristic and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage driven by LUCC in Ebinur Lake basin [J]. Journal of Huaqiao University (Natural Science),2024,45(4): 501-513.

胡丰,张艳,郭宇,等.基于PLUS和InVEST模型的渭河流域土地利用与生境质量时空变化及预测[J].干旱区地理,2022,45(4):1125-1136. Hu Feng, Zhang Yan, Guo Yu, et al. Spatial and temporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Weihe River basin based on the PLUS and InVEST models and predictions [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022,45(4):1125-1136.

王佳楠,张志.基于Markov-PLUS模型的柴北缘土地利用变化及模拟分析[J].西北林学院学报,2022,37(3):139-148. Wang Jianan, Zhang Zhi. Land use change and simulation analysis in the northern margin of the Qaidam basin based on Markov-PLUS model [J]. Journal of Northwest Forestry University, 2022,37(3):139-148.

李俊,杨德宏,吴锋振,等.基于PLUS与InVEST模型的昆明市土地利用变化动态模拟与碳储量评估[J].水土保持通报,2023,43(1):378-387. Li Jun, Yang Dehong, Wu Fengzhen, et al. Dynamic simulation of land use changes and assessment of carbon storage in Kunming City based on PLUS and InVEST models [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023,43(1):378-387.

朱文博,张静静,崔耀平,等.基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统碳储量评估: 以太行山淇河流域为例[J].地理学报,2019,74(3):446-459. Zhu Wenbo, Zhang Jingjing, Cui Yaoping, et al. Assessment of territorial ecosystem carbon storage based on land use change scenario: A case study in Qihe River basin [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019,74(3):446-459.

唐娜,张震域,廉耀康,等.基于InVEST模型的黑河流域碳储量时空变化分析[J].人民黄河,2024,46(8):99-103. Tang Na, Zhang Zhenyu, Lian Yaokang, et al. Analysis of temporal and spatial variation of carbon storage in Heihe River basin based on InVEST model [J]. Yellow River, 2024,46(8):99-103.

唐文睿,曹玉红.基于InVEST-PLUS模型的皖江流域碳储量时空演变及预测[EJ/OL].环境科学[2024-10-16], https://doi. org/10.13227/j. hjkx.20240606. Tang Wenrui, Cao Yuhong. Spatial-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon reserves in Wanjiang River basin with the InVEST-PLUS Model[EJ/OL]. Environmental Science [2024-10-16], https://doi. org/10.13227/j. hjkx.20240606.

薛万来,朱莎莎,朱梦洵,等.基于FLUS-InVEST模型的永定河流域碳储量功能变化分析[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2023,54(9):13-25. Xue Wanlai, Zhu Shasha, Zhu Mengxun, et al. Carbon storage function in Yongding River basin based on the FLUS-InVEST model [J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2023,54(9):13-25.

汪东川,杨菲,郎明伟,等.金沙江干热河谷碳储量时空演变与多情景模拟[EJ/OL].武汉大学学报(理学版),1-14[2024-12-16].https://doi.org/10.14188/j.1671-8836.2023.0250. Wang Dongchuan, Yang Fei, Lang Mingwei, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation of carbon storage in the Dry-Hot Valley of the Jinsha River [EJ/OL]. Journal of Wuhan University (Natural Science Edition), 1-14[2024-10-16]. https://doi.org/10.14188/j.1671-8836.2023.0250.

陈虎,孙毅,袁滈,等.鄂西南清江流域碳储量时空演变及情景模拟[J].湖北民族大学学报(自然科学版),2024,42(3):426-434. Chen Hu, Sun Yi, Yuan Hao, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution of carbon stocks and scenario modeling in Qingjiang River basin in Southwestern Hubei Province [J]. Journal of Hubei Minzu University (Natural Science Edition), 2024,42(3):426-434.

许澳康,胡梦珺,石晶,等.石羊河流域生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟[J].中国环境科学,2024,44(6):3365-3375. Xu Aokang, Hu Mengjun, Shi Jing, et al. Spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem carbon storages and multi-scenario simulation in the Shiyang River basin [J]. China Environmental Science, 2024,44(6):3365-3375.

谢晨新,张守红,李华林,等.1987—2020年昕水河流域土地利用变化对碳储量的影响[J].生态学报,2024,44(18):8021-8032. Xie Chenxin, Zhang Shouhong, Li Hualin, et al. Impact of land use change on carbon storage in Xinshui River basin from 1987 to 2020[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2024,44(18):8021-8032.

王怀毅,李忠魁.基于LUCC的渭河流域生态系统碳储量动态变化及脆弱性分析[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(6):252-260. Wang Huaiyi, Li Zhongkui. Dynamic changes and vulnerability analysis of carbon storage in the Weihe River basin ecosystem based on LUCC [J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2024,31(6):252-260.

陈理庭,蔡海生,张婷,等.基于Markov-FLUS模型的饶河流域土地利用多情景模拟分析[J].生态学报,2022,42(10):3947-3958. Chen Liting, Cai Haisheng, Zhang Ting, et al. Land use multi-scenario simulation analysis of Rao River basin based on Markov-FLUS model [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(10):3947-3958.

Wang Ningfei, Chen Xingpeng, Zhang Zilong, et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of county-level carbon storage in the Loess Plateau: A case study in Qingcheng County, China [J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022,144:109460.

王双,赵晓,周生辉.未来多情景土地利用变化对河南省区域碳储量的影响[EJ/OL].环境科学[2024-10-16], https://doi. org/10.13227/j. hjkx.202405168. Wang Shuang, Zhao Xiao, Zhou Shenghu. Exploring on the impact of future multi-scenario land use change on Henan Province regional carbon storage[EJ/OL]. Environmental Science [2024-10-16], https://doi. org/10.13227/j. hjkx.202405168.

李克让,王绍强,曹明奎.中国植被和土壤碳贮量[J].中国科学(D辑: 地球科学),2003,33(1):72-80. Li Kerang, Wang Shaoqiang, Cao Mingkui. Vegetation and soil carbon storage in China [J]. Science in China (Ser D), 2003,33(1):72-80.

陈利军,刘高焕,励惠国.中国植被净第一性生产力遥感动态监测[J].遥感学报,2002,6(2):129-135. Chen Lijun, Liu Gaohuan, Li Huiguo. Estimating net primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation in China using remote sensing [J]. Journal of Remote Sensing, 2002,6(2):129-135.

任玺锦,裴婷婷,陈英,等.基于碳密度修正的甘肃省土地利用变化对碳储量的影响[J].生态科学,2021,40(4):66-74. Ren Xijin, Pei Tingting, Chen Ying, et al. Impact of land use change on carbon storage in Gansu Province based on carbon density correction [J]. Ecological Science, 2021,40(4):66-74.

Raich J W, Nadelhoffer K J. Belowground carbon allocation in forest ecosystems: Global trends [J]. Ecology, 1989,70(5):1346-1354.

Alam S A, Starr M, Clark B J F. Tree biomass and soil organic carbon densities across the Sudanese woodland savannah: A regional carbon sequestration study [J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2013,89:67-76.

廖超明,韦媛媛,云子恒,等.基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(1):410-420. Liao Chaoming, Wei Yuanyuan, Yun Ziheng, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Pearl River Delta based on PLUS and InVEST models [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2024,44(1):410-420.

Nelson E, Mendoza G, Regetz J, et al. Modeling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, commodity production, and tradeoffs at landscape scales [J]. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 2009,7(1):4-11.

万海峰,蒙友波,陈洋,等.黔中城市群碳储量对土地利用/覆被变化的响应及脆弱性[J].水土保持通报,2024,44(1):443-452. Wan Haifeng, Meng Youbo, Chen Yang, et al. Response of carbon storage to land use/cover changes and vulnerability for central Guizhou urban agglomeration [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2024,44(1):443-452.

滕明塔,李旭东,方冰轲,等.黔中城市群地表覆盖变化及驱动因素分析[J].贵州师范大学学报(自然科学版),2023,41(1): 21-31. Teng Mingta,Li Xudong,Fang Bingke,et al.Study of land cover change and its driving factors of urban cluster in central Guizhou [J]. Journal of Guizhou Normal University (Natural Sciences), 2023,41(1): 21-31.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

三江源地区多情景土地利用变化对碳储量与生境质量的影响

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的河北省承德市水源涵养功能预测

基于PLUS与InVEST模型的昆明市土地利用变化动态模拟与碳储量评估

基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测

海河流域气候-土地利用-生态治理对水生态系统服务的影响