基于矩阵判别法的江西省上犹县崩岗危险性评价

张晶鑫; 程冬兵; 郭飞; 赵元凌; 沈盛彧; 刘烈浓

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.017

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基于矩阵判别法的江西省上犹县崩岗危险性评价

试验研究

- 基于矩阵判别法的江西省上犹县崩岗危险性评价
- Risk evaluation of Benggang in Shangyou County, Jiangxi Province based on matrix discriminant method
- 水土保持通报 2025年45卷第1期页码：158-167
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 长江水利委员会汉江流域治理保护中心,湖北,武汉,430010
  2. 长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北,武汉,430010
  3. 三峡库区地质灾害教育部重点实验室,湖北,宜昌,443002
  4. 上犹县水利局, 江西上犹,341200
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“不同降雨情景下赣南花岗岩区崩岗侵蚀易发性空间预测研究”(42107489);水利部重大科技项目“水土流失综合治理智能管理模型研发”(CKSD2022735/TB)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.017
  中图分类号： P694;S157.1
- 纸质出版：2025
- 稿件说明：
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张晶鑫, 程冬兵, 郭飞, 等. 基于矩阵判别法的江西省上犹县崩岗危险性评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(1):158-167.

Zhang Jingxin, Cheng Dongbing, Guo Fei, et al. Risk evaluation of Benggang in Shangyou County, Jiangxi Province based on matrix discriminant method[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 158-167.
张晶鑫, 程冬兵, 郭飞, 等. 基于矩阵判别法的江西省上犹县崩岗危险性评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2025,45(1):158-167. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.017.

Zhang Jingxin, Cheng Dongbing, Guo Fei, et al. Risk evaluation of Benggang in Shangyou County, Jiangxi Province based on matrix discriminant method[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 158-167. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.017.

摘要

[目的] 调查和研究江西省上犹县崩岗特征，并对其危险性进行评价，为该区崩岗治理优先级决策提供数据支撑和科学依据。[方法] 江西省上犹县为研究区，在全面调查崩岗及其危害特征的基础上，根据崩岗危险发生“三要素”原理，选择崩岗规模、发育状态等作为崩岗主体危险潜能指标，选择房屋、道路、耕园地等危害受体并结合危害距离作为危害程度指标，构建基于矩阵判别法的崩岗危险性评价指标体系，探讨基于矩阵判别法评价崩岗危险性的准确性。[结果] ①上犹县共有崩岗227个，其中已治理崩岗25个，未治理崩岗202个，发育状态以活跃型为主，规模以大型居多，形态类型以瓢形为主，崩岗危害对象以耕园地为主，危害距离以小于10 m为主。②上犹县内，无、小、中、大、极大5个危险等级的崩岗占崩岗数量的比例分别为47.5%，14.9%，15.8%，14.9%和6.9%，现场复核验证准确度达到80%。③在上犹县，大和极大危险等级的崩岗主要分布于营前镇与水岩乡，少部分位于梅水乡与黄埠镇，需优先治理。[结论] 矩阵判别法具有较好的准确性，且指标易获取，方法易操作，适用于对崩岗危险性的评价。

Abstract

[Objective] The distribution characteristics of Benggang in Shangyou County

Jiangxi Province was analyzed

and its risk was evaluated

so as to provide data support and scientific basis for priority decision-making of Benggang governance. [Methods] Shangyou County

Jiangxi Province was taken as the research area. Based on the comprehensive investigation of Benggang and its hazard characteristics

according to the principle of three elements of Benggang risk

the scale and development status of Benggang were selected as the main risk potential indicators of the main body of Benggang. Hazard receptors such as houses

roads

and farmland were selected and combined with the hazard distance as the hazard degree index. The risk evaluation index system of Benggang based on the matrix discriminant method was constructed to explore the accuracy of this method in evaluating the Benggang risk. [Results] ① There were 227 Benggang in Shangyou County

of which 25 had been controlled and 202 had not been controlled. The type of development status was mostly active

scale was mostly large

morphological type was mainly dipper

hazard object was mainly farmland

and hazard distance was mainly less than 10 m. ② In Shangyou County

the proportions of the five risk levels of no

small

medium

large

and great to the number of Benggang was 47.5%

14.9%

15.8%

14.9% and 6.9%

respectively

and the accuracy of on-site verification reached 80%. ③ The Benggang of large and extremely dangerous levels in Shangyou County was mainly distributed in Yingqian Town and Shuiyan Township

and a small part was located in Meishui Township and Huangbu Town

which needs priority treatment. [Conclusion] The matrix discriminant method proposed in this study is accurate and the indicators are easy to obtain. The method is easy to operate and is applicable to the evaluation of the risk of Benggang.

关键词

Keywords

references

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