碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟

黄淼; 文宁; 李亚涛; 罗治勇; 刘华平; 曾勤

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240729.001

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碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟

试验研究

- 碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟
- Productional-Living-Ecological Space Carbon Emissions Analysis and Strategic Simulation in Hunan Province Under Target of Carbon Neutrality
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第5期页码：382-391
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 湖南省国土资源规划院,湖南,长沙,410007
  2. 国土资源评价与利用湖南省重点实验室,湖南,长沙,410007
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  湖南省重点领域研发计划项目“智慧湖南国土空间规划关键技术研究与示范”(2019SK2101);湖南省自然科学基金“国土空间详细规划碳排放测算与管控研究”(2024JJ8370);湖南省自然科学基金 “基于‘双碳’的城市更新片区详细规划技术与机制响应研究”(2023JJ60571)。
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240729.001
  中图分类号： X826;F301.2
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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黄淼, 文宁, 李亚涛, 等. 碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(5):382-391.

Huang Miao, Wen Ning, Li Yatao, et al. Productional-Living-Ecological Space Carbon Emissions Analysis and Strategic Simulation in Hunan Province Under Target of Carbon Neutrality[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 382-391.
黄淼, 文宁, 李亚涛, 等. 碳中和目标下湖南省“三生”空间碳排放系数测度与战略模拟[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(5):382-391. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240729.001.

Huang Miao, Wen Ning, Li Yatao, et al. Productional-Living-Ecological Space Carbon Emissions Analysis and Strategic Simulation in Hunan Province Under Target of Carbon Neutrality[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 382-391. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240729.001.

摘要

[目的] 在碳中和目标下，探究湖南省“三生”功能时空演变及其未来碳排放分布格局，为全国各省降碳减排提供决策参考。[方法] 基于“三生”功能评价模型、“三生”空间碳排放系数测度模型，结合区域“三生”功能的各类数据和时空分异规律，探究湖南省“三生”功能与碳排放量时空关系及其未来碳排放分布格局规划战略。[结果] ①2000—2020年湖南省县域“三生”空间时空分异特征明显，生态功能空间呈现“西强东弱”格局，时间上呈先降后升的趋势，而生产功能和生活功能总体变化不大。②2000—2020年湖南省县域碳排放在整体上差距不大，而在局部地区较为集聚，且差距在不断扩大。③2000—2020年湖南省“三生”功能与碳排放关联时空关联总体较强，不同空间类型影响程度存在差异性。④综合考虑2035年湖南省国土空间总体格局规划，2035年湖南省的“三生”空间碳排放系数分布可优化为6个组合类型。[结论] 湖南省各县域三生”空间碳排放系数分布格局受自然禀赋和经济发展影响较大，需在主体功能区战略的基础上，加强区域协同，细化县域“三生”空间管控，以提前实现碳中和目标。

Abstract

[Objective] Under the goal of carbon neutrality

we explore the spatial and temporal evolution of the function of productional-living-ecological (P-L-E) in Hunan Province and its distribution pattern of carbon emissions in the future in order to provide strategy-making references for carbon emission reduction in all provinces of the country. [Methods] Based on the P-L-E function evaluation prediction and productional-living-ecological carbon emission distribution measurement models

combined with various data on the regional P-L-E function and the spatial-temporal differentiation law

this study explored the spatial-temporal relationship between the function of P-L-E and the carbon emissions in Hunan Province and the planning strategy of the distribution pattern of carbon emissions in the future. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020

the spatial and temporal differentiation of P-L-E in counties of Hunan Province was obvious

and the spatial pattern of the ecological function was strong and weak in the west and east

respectively which showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing

while the production and life functions overall did not change much from 2000 to 2020. ② The county-level carbon emissions in Hunan Province as a whole were not far apart but were concentrated in some areas

and the gap was widening. ③ The spatial-temporal correlation between the P-E-L function and carbon emissions was strong

and the influence degree of different spatial types was different. ④ Considering the general layout of land and space of Hunan Province in 2035

the coefficient of ‘P-E-L’ carbon emissions distribution could be optimised to six combination types in 2035. [Conclusion] Natural endowment and economic development exert a considerable influence on the distribution pattern of ‘P-E-L’ carbon emissions conefficient in counties of Hunan Province. Moreover

regional synergy should be strengthened on the basis of the strategy of main functional zones and refinement control of the county-level P-E-L to achieve the target of carbon neutrality ahead of time.

关键词

Keywords

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