基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测

罗鹏; 谈存峰; 齐婷婷

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240528.001

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基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测

试验研究

- 基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测
- Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Health in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on PSR Model
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第3期页码：180-189
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃,兰州,730070
  2. 宁夏理工学院文学与艺术学院,宁夏,石嘴山,753000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  甘肃省人文社会科学项目“黄河甘肃段生态环境与区域经济协同发展研究”(22ZZ82);甘肃省高等学校创新基金“泾河流域甘肃段乡村人居环境治理成效、影响因素与提升路径研究”(04123009)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240528.001
  中图分类号： X826;X171.1
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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罗鹏, 谈存峰, 齐婷婷. 基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(3):180-189.

Luo Peng, Tan Cunfeng, Qi Tingting. Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Health in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on PSR Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 180-189.
罗鹏, 谈存峰, 齐婷婷. 基于PSR模型的黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价及预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(3):180-189. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240528.001.

Luo Peng, Tan Cunfeng, Qi Tingting. Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Health in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on PSR Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 180-189. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240528.001.

摘要

[目的] 开展黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康水平评价研究，为该流域生态保护与高质量发展提供理论参考与决策依据。[方法] 基于2011—2021年面板数据，采用PSR模型构建黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康评价指标体系，运用熵值法、综合指数法和GM-ARIMA预测模型，对该流域生态系统健康水平进行综合评价和预测。[结果] ①2011—2021年，各市/州生态系统健康综合指数整体呈现上升趋势。具体来看，甘南州黄河重要水源补给生态功能区生态系统健康等级为“劣等”；临夏州生态系统健康等级由“劣等”向“差等”转变。在黄土高原区，兰州市生态系统健康等级由“中等”提升至“良好”，而天水市、定西市和平凉市生态系统健康等级从“劣等”转变为“差等”；白银市和庆阳市的生态系统健康等级仍处于“劣等”。在风沙综合防治区，武威市的生态系统健康等级为“劣等”； ②2022—2031年，生态环境综合指数预测结果呈上升趋势，但生态系统健康等级没有发生明显变化。[结论] 黄河流域甘肃段生态系统健康水平整体不高，当前的生态保护和环境改善措施尚未完全解决该地区生态环境面临的挑战，未来需要进一步加强监管和管理，提高该地区生态系统的健康水平。

Abstract

[Objective] The health level of ecosystems in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin was evaluated

in order to provide a theoretical reference and decision-making basis for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the river basin. [Methods] Based on panel data from 2011 to 2021

the PSR model was used to build an ecosystem health evaluation index system in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin. The entropy method

comprehensive index method

and GM-ARIMA prediction model were used to comprehensively evaluate and predict the health level of ecosystems in the river basin. [Results] ① From 2011 to 2021

the comprehensive index of urban and state ecosystems showed an upward trend. In the important water supply ecological functional area of Gannan Yellow River

the health level of the Gannan ecosystem was “inferior”

and the health level of the Linxia ecosystem had changed from “inferior” to “poor”. In the Loess Plateau

the health level of the Lanzhou ecosystem had changed from “medium” to “good”

and the health level of the Tianshui

Dingxi

and Pingliang ecosystems had changed from “inferior” to “poor”. The health level of Baiyin and Qingyang ecosystems was “inferior”. In the sandstorm comprehensive preventions and control area

the health level of the Wuwei ecosystem was “inferior”. ② The comprehensive ecological environmental index from 2022 to 2031 is predicted to increase

but the ecosystem health level will not change significantly. [Conclusion] The overall health level of ecosystems in the Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is not high. Current ecological protection and environmental improvement measures have not fully solved the challenges faced by the ecological environment in the region. In the future

it will be necessary to further strengthen supervision and management to improve the health level of ecosystems in the region.

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