基于PLUS和InVEST模型的贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测

李胡跃; 戴全厚; 胡泽银; 桂鈺翔

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240329.001

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基于PLUS和InVEST模型的贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测

试验研究

- 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测
- Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Carbon Storage in Guiyang City Based on PLUS-InVEST Model and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第3期页码：441-451
- 作者机构：
  
  贵州大学林学院,贵州,贵阳,550025
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“喀斯特碳酸盐岩与碎屑岩交互区坡面土壤侵蚀过程与机理”(42167044)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240329.001
  中图分类号： X171.1
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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李胡跃, 戴全厚, 胡泽银, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(3):441-451.

Li Huyue, Dai Quanhou, Hu Zeyin, et al. Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Carbon Storage in Guiyang City Based on PLUS-InVEST Model and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 441-451.
李胡跃, 戴全厚, 胡泽银, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的贵阳市碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(3):441-451. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240329.001.

Li Huyue, Dai Quanhou, Hu Zeyin, et al. Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Carbon Storage in Guiyang City Based on PLUS-InVEST Model and Multi-scenario Simulation and Prediction[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 441-451. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240329.001.

摘要

[目的

]

分析贵州省贵阳市历史和未来时间序列下碳储量时空演变特征，为促进区域可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法

]

以贵阳市为例，利用ArcGIS评估2000—2020年贵阳市的土地利用变化与碳储量时空演变特征，并耦合PLUS，InVEST模型预测2030年不同发展情景下土地利用空间格局及其碳储量变化。[结果

]

①2000—2020年贵阳市土地利用变化为耕地和草地转化为水域和建设用地；耕地面积减少了190 km

；草地面积减少了188 km

；水域面积增加了43 km

；建设用地面积锐增了367 km

。 ②2000—2020年贵阳市碳储总量呈现先增加后下降趋势，共降低了2.197×10

t，在空间上呈现北高南低的分布格局，北部区域是贵阳市的主要碳汇功能区，建设用地扩张是影响研究区碳储量降低的主要原因。 ③2030自然情景、耕地保护和生态保护情景下建设用地分别扩张了279，193，175 km

，增幅为51.48％，35.61％，32.29％。 ④2030年自然情景、耕地保护和生态保护情景下的碳储总量分别为1.400×10

，1.398×10

，1.410×10

t，相较于2020年均有下降。碳储量在空间上始终表现为北高南低的分布格局，生态保护情景下更有利于减缓研究区碳储量的下降趋势。[结论

]

未来贵阳市在生态环境方面可继续加强实施退耕还林政策来恢复碳储量水平，而在城市发展方面，应该制定更加合理的综合发展战略，在经济发展的同时又能兼顾生态保护。

Abstract

[Objective] The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in Guiyang City

Guizhou Province

in the historical and future time series were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for the promotion of regional sustainable development. [Methods] ArcGIS was used to assess the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use changes and carbon stocks in Guiyang City from 2000 to 2020. The coupled PLUS-InVEST model was used to predict the spatial pattern of land use

and the carbon stock change under different development scenarios in 2030. [Results] ① From 2000 to 2020

land use changes in Guiyang City came from the conversion of arable land and grassland into water areas and construction land. The area of arable land decreased by 190 km2. The area of grassland decreased by 188 km2. The water area increased by 43 km2. The area of construction land increased sharply by 367 km2. ② The total carbon storage of Guiyang City from 2000 to 2020 was characterized by the spatial evolution of carbon storage in different development scenarios. The total carbon storage of Guiyang City during 2000—2020 initially increased and then decreased

with a total decrease of 2.197×106 t. The spatial distribution pattern was characterized as high in the north and low in the south

and the northern region was the main carbon sink functional area of Guiyang City. The expansion of the construction land area was the main factor decreasing carbon storage in the study area. ④ Under the natural

arable land protection

and ecological protection scenarios for 2030

the area of construction land expanded by 279

193

and 175 km2

respectively

with increases of 51.48%

35.61%

and 32.29%. ④ The total carbon storage under the natural

arable land protection

and ecological protection scenarios for 2030 were 1.400×108

1.398×108

and 1.410×108 t

respectively

and these values had decreased from the values in 2020. The carbon storage always showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south. The ecological protection scenario was more conducive to slowing down the declining trend of carbon storage in the study area. [Conclusion] In the future

Guiyang City should continue to strengthen the policy implementaion of returning farmland to forest land in order to restore the carbon storage level in terms of the ecological environment. In terms of urban development

a more reasonable and comprehensive development strategy should be formulated to take into account ecological protection while developing the economy.

关键词

Keywords

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