黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析

浩日娃; 周瑞平; 胡斯乐; 呼格吉乐

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240019.004

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黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析

试验研究

- 黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析
- Simulating Carbon Sinks and Determining Driving Factors of Inner Mongolia Section in Yellow River Basin
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第1期页码：465-476
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 内蒙古师范大学, 地理科学学院,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010022
  2. 内蒙古土地利用与整治工程研究中心,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010022
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目“土地利用视角下黄河流域内蒙古段碳排放测度及减排增汇机制研究”(2023SHZR0540)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240019.004
  中图分类号： X171.1
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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浩日娃, 周瑞平, 胡斯乐, 等. 黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(1):465-476.

Haoriwa, Zhou Ruiping, Hu Sile, et al. Simulating Carbon Sinks and Determining Driving Factors of Inner Mongolia Section in Yellow River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(1): 465-476.
浩日娃, 周瑞平, 胡斯乐, 等. 黄河流域内蒙古段碳汇演变模拟及驱动因素分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(1):465-476. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240019.004.

Haoriwa, Zhou Ruiping, Hu Sile, et al. Simulating Carbon Sinks and Determining Driving Factors of Inner Mongolia Section in Yellow River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(1): 465-476. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240019.004.

摘要

[目的

]

探究黄河流域内蒙古段土地利用变化格局对碳汇空间分布的影响

并找出其主要驱动因素

为研究区生态空间发展方向和增汇政策提供依据。[方法

]

以黄河流域内蒙古段为例

基于2000

2010与2020年土地利用数据

使用InVEST-FLUS模型分析各期碳汇能力变化情况

进而模拟2040年自然发展、生态保护及农业优先3种不同情景下碳储量变化格局

并借助地理探测器找出造成碳汇空间分布差异背后的主要驱动因素。[结果

]

①2000-2020年

黄河流域内蒙古段碳储量呈先上升后下降态势

碳储量总体增加8.63×10

其中

地下生物碳储量增加3.91×10

土壤碳储量增加2.28×10

t。②未来自然发展情景下碳储量继续减少3.92×10

而在生态保护情景下增长2.21×10

高于农业优先情景下4.99×10

t的碳储增量

其中

土壤碳库是造成增量差异的关键。③年平均降雨量、年平均温度的不平衡分布是造成黄河流域内蒙古段各类碳库差异的主要因素。[结论

]

合理的生态保护政策更符合未来城镇集约化和生态高质量发展要求

未来应重视荒漠化防治工作

推进林草建设

为提升区域生态安全格局和增汇政策提供保障。

Abstract

[Objective] The influence of land use change patterns on the spatial distribution of carbon sinks for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin was investigated

and the main driving factors behind the spatial distribution of carbon sinks were identified in order to provide a basis for directing ecological spatial development and for developing sink enhancement policies in the study area.[Methods] The study was conducted for the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin. InVEST-FLUS model was used to analyze changes in the carbon sink capacity during each period of the study based on land use data from 2000

2010

and 2020. The patterns of carbon stock changes were simulated in 2040 under three different scenarios (natural development

ecological conservation and agricultural priority)

and identified the main driving factors behind the differences in the spatial distribution of carbon sinks with the help of geographic probes.[Results] ① From 2000 to 2020

carbon storage for the Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin initially increased and then decreased

with an overall increase of 8.63×106 t. Subsurface biological carbon storage increased by 3.91×106 t and soil carbon storage increased by 2.28×106 t. ② Carbon storage continued to decrease by 3.92×106 t for the future natural development scenario

but increased by 2.21×107 t for the ecological protection scenario

which was higher than for the agricultural priority scenario (4.99×106 t). Soil carbon storage was the key factor causing the incremental difference. ③ The unbalanced distributions of mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature were the main factors causing differences in the various carbon pools for the Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin.[Conclusion] Reasonable ecological protection policies are more in line with the future requirements of urban intensification and ecological high-quality development. Future attention should be given to preventing and controlling desertification

and to promoting forest and grassland construction so as to improve the regional ecological security pattern and carbon sink enhancement policies.

关键词

Keywords

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