中国农业农村碳中和效应时空分异与动态演进特征

熊媛媛; 苏洋

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240008.002

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中国农业农村碳中和效应时空分异与动态演进特征

试验研究

- 中国农业农村碳中和效应时空分异与动态演进特征
- Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Neutral Effect in Agriculture and Rural Areas of China
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第1期页码：378-388
- 作者机构：
  
  新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830052
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“西北欠发达地区农业碳排放增长机理与减排政策体系研究：基于新疆农户调查分析”(71640031);新疆维吾尔自治区“天山青年计划”培养项目“食品安全源头治理中农户低碳生产行为决策与激励机制研究”(2020Q074)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240008.002
  中图分类号： X22;F205
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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熊媛媛, 苏洋. 中国农业农村碳中和效应时空分异与动态演进特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(1):378-388.

Xiong Yuanyuan, Su Yang. Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Neutral Effect in Agriculture and Rural Areas of China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(1): 378-388.
熊媛媛, 苏洋. 中国农业农村碳中和效应时空分异与动态演进特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(1):378-388. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240008.002.

Xiong Yuanyuan, Su Yang. Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Neutral Effect in Agriculture and Rural Areas of China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(1): 378-388. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20240008.002.

摘要

[目的] 分析中国2000-2020年中国30个省(市、区)碳中和效应的变化特征和动态演进趋势

定量揭示农业农村生态环境特征和内在动因机理

为进一步推动中国农业农村"碳中和"进程提供理论依据。[方法] 基于大农业视角

运用排放系数法选取37类碳源和28类碳汇指标

测算了中国2000-2020年21期30个省(市、区)农业农村碳中和效应

揭示其时空分布特征

并采用Kernel-Density方法观测其动态演进特征。[结果] ①中国农业农村碳中和效应呈平稳上升趋势

年均递增2.79 %

环比增速总体处于波动上升态势

其中碳汇增速明显快于碳排放增速。②中国农业农村碳中和效应空间分布不均衡程度明显增加

呈"中间低四周高"的分布格局

省域差异明显:排在前10位的省(市、区)占全国碳中和效应的66.42 %

而排在后10位的省(市、区)仅占全国的4.72 %。③碳中和效应水平呈现:中部地区>东部地区>西部地区的态势

各地区间存在较大差异

种植业是减排增汇的最大源头。④中国农业农村碳中和效应密度函数曲线中心整体向右偏移

各省(市、区)空间差距逐步扩大

存在区域发展不均衡的现象。[结论] 低碳经济与现代农业相互交织

各地区应当因地制宜地制定农业农村领域碳中和发展规划

实现区域间碳中和协同机制

加速农业农村碳中和进程。

Abstract

[Objective] The change characteristics and dynamic evolution trend of carbon neutral effect in 30 provinces (municipalities and regions) in China from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed

and the characteristics and internal motivation mechanism of ecological environment in agriculture and rural area were quantitatively revealed

in order to provide theoretical basis for further promoting the process of "carbon neutral" in agriculture and rural areas of China.[Methods] Based on the perspective of large agricultural production systems

37 types of carbon sources and 28 types of carbon sinks were selected by the emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon neutrality effect for agriculture and rural areas in 30 provinces (municipalities and regions) in China during 2000-2020. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the carbon neutrality effect were determined

and its dynamic evolution characteristics were observed by the Kernel-Density method.[Results] ① The carbon neutral effect in China's agriculture and rural areas increased steadily over time

with an average annual increase of 2.79 %. The overall growth rate fluctuated

and the growth rate of carbon sinks was significantly faster than the growth rate of carbon emissions. ② The spatial imbalance of the carbon neutral effect in China's agriculture and rural areas increased significantly

showing a distribution pattern of "lower in the middle and higher in the periphery". The difference between provinces was obvious:the top 10 provinces (municipalities and regions) accounted for 66.42 % of the national carbon neutral effect

while the bottom 10 provinces (municipalities and regions) accounted for only 4.72 % of the national carbon neutrality effect. ③ The level of the carbon neutrality effect showed a distribution trend of "central region > eastern region > western region"

and there were great differences between different regions. The planting industry was the largest source of emission reduction and sink increase. ④ The center of the carbon neutrality effect density function curve in China's agriculture and rural areas had shifted to the right as a whole

and the spatial gap between provinces (municipalities and regions) has gradually expanded. Unbalanced regional development was observed.[Conclusion] Low-carbon economy and modern agriculture are intertwined. All regions should formulate carbon neutral development plans in agriculture and rural areas according to local conditions

bring about an inter-regional carbon neutral coordination mechanism

and accelerate the process of carbon neutral in agriculture and in rural areas.

关键词

Keywords

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