华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩关系

张梅霞; 李芳; 郭宸宁

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.06.037

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华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩关系

试验研究

- 华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩关系
- Spatial-temporal Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Decoupling Relationship of Carbon Emissions from Cultivated Land Use in Three Provinces of North China Plain
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第6期页码：366-376
- 作者机构：
  
  山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东,泰安,271018
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“煤矸石—稻壳复合材料对稻田土壤砷的钝化机制研究”(42177027)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.06.037
  中图分类号： F301.24
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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张梅霞, 李芳, 郭宸宁. 华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩关系[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(6):366-376.

Zhang Meixia, Li Fang, Guo Chenning. Spatial-temporal Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Decoupling Relationship of Carbon Emissions from Cultivated Land Use in Three Provinces of North China Plain[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(6): 366-376.
张梅霞, 李芳, 郭宸宁. 华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放时空特征、影响因素及脱钩关系[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(6):366-376. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.06.037.

Zhang Meixia, Li Fang, Guo Chenning. Spatial-temporal Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Decoupling Relationship of Carbon Emissions from Cultivated Land Use in Three Provinces of North China Plain[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(6): 366-376. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.06.037.

摘要

[目的] 探讨耕地利用碳排放特征及其与粮食产量的脱钩关系，为协调华北平原耕地利用碳减排与粮食安全提供科学依据。[方法] 基于2001—2021年华北平原三省(山东、河北、河南)45个城市的数据，运用碳排放系数法、空间自相关分析、空间杜宾模型和Tapio脱钩模型，研究耕地利用碳排放的时空演变及其影响因素，并分析耕地利用碳排放与粮食产量的脱钩关系。[结果] ①2001—2021年华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放总量呈现“倒U型”特征，其中化肥是主要碳源，占总量的51.67%。山东省和河南省的耕地利用碳排放总量高于河北省，且三省在碳排放结构上存在差异。②空间上，华北平原三省耕地利用碳排放总体上由高碳向低碳阶段转变，不同城市间的碳排放水平存在显著差异。③耕地利用碳排放总体上表现出正向空间集聚特征且集聚程度趋于增强，高—高型集聚区的空间连贯性扩展，而低—低型集聚区则较为分散。④农业经济水平、农村电力消耗和化肥施用强度对耕地利用碳排放具有正向促进作用，城镇化水平则呈负向影响。城镇化水平与农村电力消耗具有正向空间溢出效应，农业经济水平则为负向空间溢出效应。⑤耕地利用碳排放与粮食产量的脱钩状态从弱脱钩为主、扩张性负脱钩为辅转变为强脱钩为主、衰退脱钩为辅。[结论] 应鼓励使用有机肥和精准施肥技术，根据各省碳排放结构的差异制定减排措施，增强粮食品种适应性，加强区域间协调互动。

Abstract

[Objective] The characteristics of carbon emissions from cultivated land use and their decoupling relationship with grain yield were investigated to provide a scientific basis for coordinating the reduction of carbon emissions from cultivated land use and grain security in the North China Plain. [Methods] Based on data from 45 cities in Shandong

Hebei

and Henan provinces in the North China Plain from 2001 to 2021

the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions from cultivated land use and the decoupling relationship between these emissions and grain yield were analyzed using the carbon emission coefficient method

spatial autocorrelation analysis

spatial Durbin model

and Tapio decoupling model. [Results] ① From 2001 to 2021

the total carbon emissions from cultivated land use in the three provinces of the North China Plain exhibited an inverted U-shaped pattern

with fertilizer as the main carbon source

accounting for 51.67% of the total emissions. The total carbon emissions from cultivated land use in Shandong and Henan provinces were higher than those in Hebei Province

and the carbon emission structure differed among the three provinces. ② Spatially

the carbon emissions from cultivated land use in the three provinces of the North China Plain generally shifted from a high-carbon stage to a low-carbon stage

with notable differences in carbon emission levels among different cities. ③ The carbon emissions from cultivated land use generally showed positive spatial agglomeration characteristics

and the degree of agglomeration tended to strengthen

with spatial coherence expanding in high-high type clustering areas

while low-low type clustering areas were more dispersed. ④ The agricultural economic level

rural electricity consumption

and fertilizer application intensity had positive effects on carbon emissions from cultivated land use

while the urbanization level had negative effects. The urbanization level and rural electricity consumption had positive spatial spillover effects

while the agricultural economic level had negative spatial spillover effects. ⑤ The decoupling state between carbon emissions from cultivated land use and grain yield shifted from mainly weak decoupling with expansive negative decoupling to mainly strong decoupling with recessive decoupling. [Conclusion] Organic fertilizers and precise fertilization techniques should be encouraged to use; emission reduction measures should be formulated according to the different carbon emission structures of each province; the adaptability of grain varieties should be enhanced

and inter-regional coordination and interaction should be strengthened.

关键词

Keywords

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