成都平原土地利用重心变化与碳核算情景模拟

乌英嘎; 蒲万平; 董霁红

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

成都平原土地利用重心变化与碳核算情景模拟

试验研究

- 成都平原土地利用重心变化与碳核算情景模拟
- Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第5期页码：392-408
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏,徐州,221116
  2. 矿山生态修复教育部工程研究中心,江苏,徐州,221116
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  中煤航测遥感集团有限公司项目“2023年度自然资源遥感监测”(2023100088)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041
  中图分类号： X321
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
乌英嘎, 蒲万平, 董霁红. 成都平原土地利用重心变化与碳核算情景模拟[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(5):392-408.

Wu Yingga, Pu Wanping, Dong Jihong. Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 392-408.
乌英嘎, 蒲万平, 董霁红. 成都平原土地利用重心变化与碳核算情景模拟[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(5):392-408. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041.

Wu Yingga, Pu Wanping, Dong Jihong. Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 392-408. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041.

摘要

[目的

]

明晰成都平原土地利用重心迁移和碳排放变化趋势，探究土地利用碳排放的影响因素，为成都平原低碳发展提供理论与数据支持。[方法

]

基于多源数据，采用重心模型和IPCC碳排放系数法明确成都平原2006—2022年土地利用重心变化趋势和碳排放，运用偏最小二乘法(PLS)回归分析与对数平均迪氏指数分解(LMDI)模型探究耕地碳排放和建设用地碳排放的主要影响因素，并使用斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS)模拟未来土地利用格局与碳排放。[结果

]

①在土地利用类型方面，耕地、水域、建设用地和其他及未利用地重心分别向东北方向移动4.23，5.46，8.44和31.58 km，林地与草地向东南方向移动11.12和3.41 km。在主要粮食作物方面，水稻与玉米重心向东北方向分别移动15.47和7.52 km，小麦向西南方向移动17.77 km。②2006—2022年，成都平原33个县域土地利用碳排放量均呈上升态势，共增加1.36×10

t，碳汇持续下降，共减少5.68×10

t。③自然情景、碳增汇情景和碳减排情景下，土地利用碳排放分别比2022年减少5.39×10

，3.47×10

t和4.53×10

t。[结论

]

研究期间，成都平原耕地流失严重，主要流转为成都平原中部的建设用地和龙门山脉、龙泉山脉与乐山市内的林地，未来需要加强对该区域的耕地保护，33个县域土地利用碳排放上升趋势明显且主要影响因素差异较大，需因地制宜推行减源办法与增汇路径。

Abstract

[Objective] The shifts of land use gravity centers and carbon emission change and the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain were analyzed to provide theoretical and data support for the low-carbon development of the area. [Methods] Based on multi-source data

the barycenter model and IPCC carbon emission coefficient method were used to elucidate the changes in the land use gravity centers and carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain from 2006 to 2022. Partial least squares regression analysis and the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model were used to explore the primary factors influencing cultivated and construction land carbon emissions. A patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate future land use patterns and carbon emissions. [Results] ① In terms of land use types

the gravity centers of cultivated land

water area

construction land

and unused land shifted 4.23

5.46

8.44 km

and 31.58 km to the northeast

respectively

and forest land and grassland shifted 11.12 km and 3.41 km to the southeast. The gravity centers of major food crops

rice and corn

moved 15.47 km and 7.52 km to the northeast

respectively

whereas that of wheat moved 17.77 km to the southwest. ② From 2006 to 2022

the land use carbon emissions of 33 counties in the Chengdu Plain showed an upward trend

with a total increase of 1.36×107 tons; and the carbon sinks continued to decline

with a total reduction of 5.68×105 tons. ③ Under the natural

carbon sink

and carbon emission reduction scenarios

the carbon emissions from land use reduced by 5.39×105

3.47×105

4.53×105 tons

respectively

comparing with those in 2022. [Conclusion] During the study period

a significant loss of cultivated land was observed in the Chengdu Plain; most of it was converted to construction land in the central part of the Chengdu Plain and forest land in the Longmen Mountains

Longquan Mountains

and Leshan City. In the future

the protection of cultivated land should be strengthened necessary. Carbon emissions from land use in 33 counties showed an obvious rising trend; however

the primary influencing factors are different. Therefore

source reduction and sequestration measure should be implemented according to local conditions.

关键词

Keywords

references

吴凯,顾晋饴,何宏谋,等.基于重心模型的丘陵山地区耕地利用转换时空特征研究[J].农业工程学报,2019,35(7):247-254. Wu Kai, Gu Jinyi, He Hongmou, et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land use transition in hilly and mountainous regions based on barycenter model [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2019,35(7):247-254.

阎仲康,曹银贵,李志涛,等.内蒙古东部草原区矿山生态修复研究:关键技术与减碳路径[J].农业资源与环境学报,2023,40(3):570-582. Yan Zhongkang, Cao Yingui, Li Zhitao, et al. Ecological restoration of mines in eastern grassland area of Inner Mongolia, China: Key technologies and carbon reduction paths [J]. Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment, 2023,40(3):570-582.

冯薇,赵荣钦,谢志祥,等.碳中和目标下土地利用碳排放效率及其时空格局: 以黄河流域72个地级市为例[J].中国土地科学,2023,37(1):102-113. Feng Wei, Zhao Rongqin, Xie Zhixiang, et al. Land use carbon emission efficiency and its spatial-temporal pattern under carbon neutral target: A case study of 72 cities in the Yellow River basin [J]. China Land Science, 2023,37(1):102-113.

韩方红,高凡,何兵,等.1990—2020年阿克苏河流域土地利用碳排放时空轨迹与影响因素[J].环境科学,2024,45(6):3297-3307. Han Fanghong, Gao Fan, He Bing, et al. Exploring the spatial and temporal trajectories of land use carbon emissions and influencing factors in the Aksu River Basin from 1990 to 2020[J]. Environmental Science, 2024,45(6):3297-3307.

游和远,张津榕,夏舒怡.面向碳排放效率的多目标土地利用结构与布局优化研究: 以杭州市萧山区为例[J].中国土地科学,2023,37(6):74-83. You Heyuan, Zhang Jinrong, Xia Shuyi. Structure and layout optimization of multi-objective land use based on carbon emission efficiency: A case study of Xiaoshan District in Hangzhou City [J]. China Land Science, 2023,37(6):74-83.

赵荣钦,陈志刚,黄贤金,等.南京大学土地利用碳排放研究进展[J].地理科学,2012,32(12):1473-1480. Zhao Rongqin, Chen Zhigang, Huang Xianjin, et al. Research progresses of land use carbon emission in Nanjing University [J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012,32(12):1473-1480.

张帅帅,崔耀平,傅声雷,等.中国森林面积变化及其温室气体储量模拟研究[J].生态学报,2020,40(4):1140-1149. Zhang Shuaishuai, Cui Yaoping, Fu Shenglei, et al. Modeling greenhouse gas sequestration potential of forest change in China [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020,40(4):1140-1149.

郑博福,梁涵,万炜,等.江西省县域农业碳排放时空格局及影响因素分析[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(23):70-80. Zheng Bofu, Liang Han, Wan Wei, et al. Spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions at the county level in Jiangxi Province of China [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2022,38(23):70-80.

苏越,朱峻珲,朱从谋,等.浙北平原地区耕地非粮化时空演变特征及碳排放效应分析[J].农业工程学报,2023,39(24):278-286. Su Yue, Zhu Junhui, Zhu Congmou, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and carbon emission on non-grain production of cultivated land in the Northern Plains of Zhejiang Province, China [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2023,39(24):278-286.

韩骥,周翔,象伟宁.土地利用碳排放效应及其低碳管理研究进展[J].生态学报,2016,36(4):1152-1161. Han Ji, Zhou Xiang, Xiang Weining. Progress in research on land use effects on carbon emissions and low carbon management [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016,36(4):1152-1161.

刘艳秋,秦凯,Jason C B,等.基于涡动及走航观测的晋东南煤矿区甲烷分布特征[J].煤炭学报,2022,47(12):4395-4402. Liu Yanqiu, Qin Kai, Jason C, et al. Analysis of the characteristics of methane in the coal mining area of southeastern Shanxi with eddy and mobile observation [J]. Journal of China Coal Society, 2022,47(12):4395-4402.

王俊博,李鑫,田继军,等.煤炭开发利用产业碳足迹计算方法及减排措施综述[J].煤炭学报,2023,48(S1):263-274. Wang Junbo, Li Xin, Tian Jijun, et al. Summary of carbon footprint calculation method and emission reduction measures of coal development and utilization industry [J]. Journal of China Coal Society, 2023,48(S1):263-274.

武爱彬,赵艳霞,郭小平,等.碳中和目标下河北省土地利用碳排放格局演变与多情景模拟[J].农业工程学报,2023,39(14):261-270. Wu Aibin, Zhao Yanxia, Guo Xiaoping, et al. Evolution and multi scenario simulation of land use carbon emission pattern in Hebei Province under carbon neutral target [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2023,39(14):261-270.

杨庆媛.土地利用变化与碳循环[J].中国土地科学,2010,24(10):7-12. Yang Qingyuan. Land use changes and the carbon cycling [J]. China Land Science, 2010,24(10):7-12.

李在军,尹上岗,姜友雪,等.长三角经济增长与碳排放异速关系及形成机制[J].自然资源学报,2022,37(6):1507-1523. Li Zaijun, Yin Shanggang, Jiang Youxue, et al. Analysis of allometric relationship and formation mechanism between economic growth and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River delta [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022,37(6):1507-1523.

Sang Lingling, Zhang Chao, Yang Jianyu, et al. Simulation of land use spatial pattern of towns and villages based on CA-Markov model [J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 2011,54(3/4):938-943.

Verburg P H, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, et al. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model [J]. Environmental Management, 2002,30(3):391-405.

Liang Xun, Guan Qingfeng, Clarke K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China [J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2021,85:101569.

Yang Jianxin, Gong Jian, Tang Wenwu, et al. Patch-based cellular automata model of urban growth simulation: Integrating feedback between quantitative composition and spatial configuration [J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2020,79:101402.

Luo Yuchuan, Zhang Zhao, Chen Yi, et al. ChinaCrop-Phen1km: A high-resolution crop phenological dataset for three staple crops in China during 2000—2015 based on leaf area index (LAI) products [J]. Earth System Science Data, 2020,12(1):197-214.

Chen Yi, Zhang Zhao, Tao Fulu. Improving regional winter wheat yield estimation through assimilation of phenology and leaf area index from remote sensing data [J]. European Journal of Agronomy, 2018,101:163-173.

樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95. Fan Jie, Tao Anjun, Lv Chen. The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on the regional gap in China [J]. Progress in Geography, 2010,29(1):87-95.

于卓卉,毛世平.中国农业净碳排放与经济增长的脱钩分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2022,32(11):30-42. Yu Zhuohui, Mao Shiping. Analysis of the decoupling of China’s agricultural net carbon emissions from its economic growth [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022,32(11):30-42.

Bashmakov I, Bogner J. Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change technical summary [J]. World Meteorological Organization, 2007,52:1-43.

苑韶峰,唐奕钰.低碳视角下长江经济带土地利用碳排放的空间分异[J].经济地理,2019,39(2):190-198. Yuan Shaofeng, Tang Yiyu. Spatial differentiation of land use carbon emission in the Yangtze River economic belt based on low carbon perspective [J]. Economic Geography, 2019,39(2):190-198.

West T O, Marland G. A synthesis of carbon sequestration, carbon emissions, and net carbon flux in agriculture: Comparing tillage practices in the United States [J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 2002,91(1/2/3):217-232.

李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(8):80-86. Li Bo, Zhang Junbiao, Li Haipeng. Research on spatial-temporal characteristics and affecting factors decomposition of agricultural carbon emission in China [J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011,21(8):80-86.

IPCC C. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working GroupⅢto the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[J]. Computational Geometry, 2007,18(2):95~123.

伍芬琳,李琳,张海林,等.保护性耕作对农田生态系统净碳释放量的影响[J].生态学杂志,2007,26(12):2035-2039. Wu Fenlin, Li Lin, Zhang Hailin, et al. Effects of conservation tillage on net carbon flux from farmland ecosystems [J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2007,26(12):2035-2039.

耿亮,彭灵通,魏玻,等.城镇化对长江经济带农业碳排放的影响及其耦合关系研究[J].生态经济,2024,40(3):128-138. Geng Liang, Peng Lingtong, Wei Bo, et al. Impact of urbanization on agricultural carbon emission and its coupling relationship in the Yangtze River economic belt [J]. Ecological Economy, 2024,40(03):128-138.

崔盼盼,张艳平,张丽君,等.中国省域隐含碳排放及其驱动机理时空演变分析[J].自然资源学报,2018,33(5):879-892. Cui Panpan, Zhang Yanping, Zhang Lijun, et al. Analysis on the spatial and temporal evolution of indirect carbon emissions and its driving mechanism in China [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018,33(5):879-892.

Guo Zhangdong, Zhang Xiaoning. Carbon reduction effect of agricultural green production technology: A new evidence from China [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2023,874:162483.

Zheng Jiali, Mi Zhifu, Coffman D, et al. The slowdown in China’s carbon emissions growth in the new phase of economic development [J]. One Earth, 2019,1(2):240-253.

Yu Qianyu, Li Meng, Li Qiao, et al. Economic agglomeration and emissions reduction: Does high agglomeration in China’s urban clusters lead to higher carbon intensity [J]. Urban Climate, 2022,43:101174.

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

不同空间尺度耕地埂坎提取方法及其分布特征

成都平原不同秸秆还田模式下稻麦轮作农田系统能值分析

基于多源地空耦合数据的青藏高原冻融侵蚀强度评价

基于RUSLE模型的2000-2010年长江三峡库区土壤侵蚀评价

成都平原城市群2000-2019年土地利用变化及其生态环境效应