杭州城西科创大走廊地表覆盖碳储量变化分析与情景预测

詹远增; 马彦; 王兴坤; 冯存均; 李佳鑫; 徐盼

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.039

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杭州城西科创大走廊地表覆盖碳储量变化分析与情景预测

试验研究

- 杭州城西科创大走廊地表覆盖碳储量变化分析与情景预测
- Carbon Stock Change Analysis and Scenario Prediction on Land Cover of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor in Hangzhou City
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第5期页码：369-381
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 浙江省测绘科学技术研究院,浙江,杭州,310001
  2. 自然资源浙江省卫星应用技术中心,浙江,杭州,310001
  3. 自然资源部地理国情监测重点实验室,浙江,杭州,310001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室开放基金项目“基于高分卫星影像的地表覆盖变化碳汇监测研究”(KLSMNR-G202210)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.039
  中图分类号： TP79;F301.2
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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詹远增, 马彦, 王兴坤, 等. 杭州城西科创大走廊地表覆盖碳储量变化分析与情景预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(5):369-381.

Zhan Yuanzeng, Ma Yan, Wang Xingkun, et al. Carbon Stock Change Analysis and Scenario Prediction on Land Cover of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor in Hangzhou City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 369-381.
詹远增, 马彦, 王兴坤, 等. 杭州城西科创大走廊地表覆盖碳储量变化分析与情景预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(5):369-381. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.039.

Zhan Yuanzeng, Ma Yan, Wang Xingkun, et al. Carbon Stock Change Analysis and Scenario Prediction on Land Cover of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor in Hangzhou City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 369-381. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.039.

摘要

[目的] 通过高分辨率遥感影像分析杭州城西科创大走廊的地表覆盖变化与碳储量变化，在“三区三线”成果约束下预测碳储量未来发展趋势，为城市新中心的国土空间优化和生态发展提供科学依据。[方法] 基于2010，2015，2020，2023年4期地表覆盖数据，采用GeoSoS-FLUS模型模拟2035年自然发展、极限建设开发、极限农业生产、生态功能服务和城乡融合发展5种不同情景下的地表覆盖变化，并运用模型为框架计算2010—2023年和2023—2035年模拟情境下的碳储量变化情况。[结果] ①2010—2023年城西科创大走廊呈现碳储量增长趋势，共计变化1 720.69 t，其中植被碳储量约增加为913.67 t，土壤碳储量约增加566.18 t，水域碳储量约增加240.84 t； ②耕地内部类型转变导致土壤碳储量减少119.33 t，林地内部类型转变导致的碳储量变化占总变化的39.50%； ③自然增长情景及生态功能服务情景下，林地增长相对明显，极限建设开发情景、极限农业生产情景地表覆盖类型更为稳定，城乡融合发展情景下，通过耕地、林地、草地与其他地表覆盖类型的合理置换，其他地表覆盖类型获得了更大的发展空间； ④2023—2035年，在自然增长情景下，碳储量将增加898.74 t，在极限建设开发情景下，碳储量将增加538.58 t，在极限农业生产情景下，碳储量将增加517.45 t，在生态功能服务情景下，碳储量将增加813.09 t，在城乡融合发展情景下，碳储量将增加356.91 t。[结论] 在控制线的约束下进行发展可以有效地保障城市碳汇能力，合理的地表覆盖类型转变及内部结构调整可以为城市新中心发展提供进一步的空间。

Abstract

[Objective] The changes in land cover and carbon stock of the Hangzhou Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor through high-resolution remote sensing images were analyzed and the development trend of carbon stock under the constraints of the “three zones and three lines” achievements was predicted to provide scientific basis for the optimization of national land space and ecological development of new urban centers. [Methods] Based on four periods of land cover data from 2010

2015

2020

and 2023

the GeoSoS-FLUS model was used to simulate both past and future changes in land cover under five different scenarios: the natural growth

extreme construction and development

extreme agricultural production

ecological function services

and urban-rural integration development scenarios up to the year 2035. The model was used as a framework to calculate the changes in carbon stock under the simulated scenarios from 2010 to 2023 and from 2023 to 2035

respectively. [Results] ① The carbon stock of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2023

with a total change of 1 720.69 t

where the carbon stock of vegetation

soil

and water increased to approximately 913.67 t

566.18 t

and 240.84 t

respectively. ② The internal type transformation of cultivated land resulted in a decrease of 119.33 t in soil carbon stock

while the internal type transformation of forest land accounted for 39.50% of the total change in carbon stock. ③ In the natural growth and ecological function services scenarios

forest land growth was relatively significant

while in the extreme construction and development and extreme agricultural production scenarios

the land cover types were more stable. In the urban-rural integration development scenario

through reasonable replacement between cultivated land

forest land

grassland

and other land cover types

other land cover types obtained greater development space. ④ During 2023—2035

carbon stock will rise by 898.74 t under the natural growth scenario

538.58 t under the extreme construction and development scenario

517.45 t under the extreme agricultural production scenario

813.09 t under the ecological function services scenario

and 356.91 t under the urban-rural integration development scenario. [Conclusion] Development under the constraint of control lines could effectively guarantee the carbon sequestration capacity of cities. Reasonable transformation of land cover types and internal structural adjustments can provide more space for the development of new urban centers.

关键词

Keywords

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