长江经济带省域农业生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调

甘黎黎

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.024

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长江经济带省域农业生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调

试验研究

- 长江经济带省域农业生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调
- Coupling and Coordination of Agricultural Ecological Security and Food Security in Provinces of Yangtze River Economic Belt
- 水土保持通报 2024年43卷第5期页码：223-233
- 作者机构：
  
  华东交通大学人文社会科学学院,江西,南昌,330013
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家社科资助项目“农业面源污染协同治理中的政农互动机理及政策优化研究”(20BGL227);江西省高校人文项目“长江经济带农业生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调评价及协同路径研究”(JC23106)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.024
  中图分类号： F327
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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甘黎黎. 长江经济带省域农业生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,43(5):223-233.

Gan Lili. Coupling and Coordination of Agricultural Ecological Security and Food Security in Provinces of Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 43(5): 223-233.
甘黎黎. 长江经济带省域农业生态安全与粮食安全耦合协调[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,43(5):223-233. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.024.

Gan Lili. Coupling and Coordination of Agricultural Ecological Security and Food Security in Provinces of Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 43(5): 223-233. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.024.

摘要

[目的] 探究长江经济带农业生态安全和粮食安全耦合协调状况，为提升长江经济带农业生态安全、粮食安全及二者协调发展提供决策参考。[方法] 以长江经济带11个省(市)为研究尺度，采用熵权法、综合指数模型、耦合度模型、耦合协调度模型、灰色关联度模型、灰色预测模型和指数平滑模型定量分析农业生态安全和粮食安全的耦合协调水平、耦合协调发展等级、影响因素及未来趋势。[结果] ①2002—2022年，长江经济带省域农业生态安全与粮食安全综合指数大多呈现较大波动态势，省域间农业生态安全与粮食安全综合指数水平差距先缩小再扩大，样本间的差距整体不大。②从时间维度来看，长江经济带各省耦合协调度在2002—2022年期间变动较大，总体呈上升发展趋势，耦合协调等级大多升至更优一级水平。在空间维度上，整体呈现出“上游低、中游高、下游相对较低”的分布特征，区域差异比较显著。③农业生态安全与粮食安全是一个耦合交互的系统，农业生态安全子系统与粮食安全子系统均对耦合协调度具有影响。长江经济带省域粮食安全子系统对耦合协调度的影响更高一些。④用指数平滑法预测长江经济带未来五年省域耦合协调度值，不同省份呈不同趋势，既有上升趋势，也有小幅下降趋势。[结论] 长江经济带各省应因地制宜，在弥补子系统短板弱项的基础上进一步增强系统内外要素的协同联动，最终实现二者良性协同发展。

Abstract

[Objective] The coupling and coordination status of agricultural ecological security and food security was explored in order to provide decision-making reference for improving both

individually

and their coordinated development in the Yangtze River economic belt. [Methods] Taking 11 provinces (cities) in the Yangtze River economic belt as the research areas

the entropy weight method

comprehensive index model

coupling degree model

coupling coordination degree model

grey correlation degree model

grey prediction model

and exponential smoothing model were used to quantitatively analyze the coupling coordination level

coupling coordination development level

influencing factors

and future trends of agricultural ecological security and food security. [Results] ① From 2002 to 2022

the comprehensive index of agricultural ecological security and food security in most provinces of the Yangtze River economic belt showed a significant fluctuation trend. The gap in the level of comprehensive index of agricultural ecological security and food security between provinces first narrowed and then expanded

and the overall gap between samples was not significant. ② From a temporal perspective

the coupling coordination degree of various provinces in the Yangtze River economic belt fluctuated significantly from 2002 to 2022

showing an overall upward trend

with most coupling coordination levels rising to a more optimal level. Regarding spatial dimension

the overall distribution characteristics show relatively low upstream

low midstream

and high downstream trends

as well as significant regional differences. ③ Agricultural ecological security and food security are a coupled and interactive system

and both the subsystems of them influence the degree of coupling coordination. The impact of the provincial grain security subsystem in the Yangtze River economic belt on the coupling coordination degree is higher. ④ Using the exponential smoothing method to predict the coupling coordination degree of provinces in the Yangtze River economic belt for the next five years

different provinces show different trends

with both upward and slightly downward trends. [Conclusion] Provinces in the Yangtze River economic belt should adapt to local conditions

further enhance the synergy and linkage of internal and external factors on the basis of filling in the shortcomings and weaknesses of the subsystems

and ultimately achieve the benign coordinated development of the two.

关键词

Keywords

references

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