山西省农业面源污染时空变化特征及发展趋势预测

乔扬源; 张鹏; 党淑青

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.030

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山西省农业面源污染时空变化特征及发展趋势预测

试验研究

- 山西省农业面源污染时空变化特征及发展趋势预测
- Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution and Its Development Trend Forecast in Shanxi Province
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第4期页码：289-297
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 山西电子科技学院环境科学与工程学院,山西,临汾,041004
  2. 太原理工大学环境科学与工程学院,山西,太原,030000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“锰矿区锰与DOM的相互作用机制及混凝去除机理研究”(41502331);山西省高等学校科技创新项目“山西省农业面源污染时空变化特征研究”(2023L461);山西省自然科学研究基金项目“复合光引发体系制备高效微藻采收絮凝剂及相关机理研究”(202203021211248)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.030
  中图分类号： X52;X501
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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乔扬源, 张鹏, 党淑青. 山西省农业面源污染时空变化特征及发展趋势预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(4):289-297.

Qiao Yangyuan, Zhang Peng, Dang Shuqing. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution and Its Development Trend Forecast in Shanxi Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(4): 289-297.
乔扬源, 张鹏, 党淑青. 山西省农业面源污染时空变化特征及发展趋势预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(4):289-297. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.030.

Qiao Yangyuan, Zhang Peng, Dang Shuqing. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution and Its Development Trend Forecast in Shanxi Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(4): 289-297. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.030.

摘要

[目的

]

定量分析山西省2011—2022年农业面源污染时空变化特征并预测其发展趋势，为该省农业面源污染防治工作的开展提供科学参考。[方法

]

采用排污系数法和等标污染负荷法定量分析山西省农业面源污染的时空变化特征，通过建立自回归移动平均的(ARIMA)时间序列预测模型对其发展趋势进行预测。[结果

]

①2022年山西省农业面源污染排放量分别为：化学需氧量(COD)为4.74×10

t，NH

-N为5 820 t，TN为2.86×10

t和TP为4 180 t。排放量高值区集中在吕梁市和运城市，低值区集中在太原市和阳泉市。等标污染负荷总量为3.95×10

。首要污染物为TN，首要污染账户为畜禽养殖账户。②2011—2022年，4类污染物变化趋势表现出一致性，总体上表现为波动上升，且各项污染物最高值均出现在2022年。各行政区污染物排放量排序基本稳定，运城市和吕梁市一直占重要地位。根据等标污染负荷计算结果，12 a来TN一直是首要污染物，畜禽养殖一直是首要污染账户，并且占比仍在不断上升。③通过确定模型参数，建立ARIMA(1，1，2)模型进行预测。预测期内山西省农业面源污染会有小幅下降，之后发展趋势表现为平稳上升。[结论

]

需要进一步加强对农业重点污染账户和重点污染物的防治工作，以降低农业面源污染排放量，缓解其上升趋势。

Abstract

[Objective] The spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural nonpoint source pollution in Shanxi Province during 2011—2022 were analysed and its development trends was predicted in order to provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution in the Shanxi Province. [Methods] The spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution in Shanxi Province were analysed using the pollution emission coefficient and equivalent pollution load methods

and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was established to predict the development trend. [Results] ① In 2022

the agricultural non-point source pollution in Shanxi Province produced 4.74×105 t of COD (chemical oxygen demand)

5 820 t of NH3-N

2.86×104 t of total nitrogen (TN)

and 4 180 t of total phosphorus (TP). The high-emission areas were located in Lvliang and Yuncheng City

and the low-emission areas were located in Taiyuan and Yangquan City. The equivalent pollution load was 3.95×1010 m3. The primary pollutant was TN

and the primary source of pollution was animal husbandry. ② From 2011—2022

the developmental trends of the four types of pollutants were consistent. All showed an increase in fluctuation

and the highest value for each pollutant was observed in 2022. The ranking of pollutants in each region was stable

with Yuncheng and Lvliang City always occupying important positions. TN has been the primary pollutant for 12 years

animal husbandry has been the source of the primary pollutant

and the proportion was still rising. ③ By determining model parameters

the ARIMA (1

2) model was established for the forecast. During the forecast period

agricultural non-point source pollution in Shanxi Province decreased slightly

and the development trend showed a steady increase. [Conclusion] It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of key agricultural pollution accounts and pollutants

reduce the discharge of agricultural nonpoint source pollution

and mitigate its rising trend.

关键词

Keywords

references

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