基于Budyko假设的清水河和白河流域径流变化及其影响因素分析

李赟; 李博睿; 张益闽; 王伟; 张良; 张飘; 裴宏伟

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007

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基于Budyko假设的清水河和白河流域径流变化及其影响因素分析

试验研究

- 基于Budyko假设的清水河和白河流域径流变化及其影响因素分析
- Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第3期页码：56-64
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河北建筑工程学院,河北,张家口,075000
  2. 河北省水质工程与水资源综合利用重点实验室,河北,张家口,075000
  3. 河北省张家口水文勘测研究中心,河北,张家口,075000
  4. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京,100871
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  河北省科技厅重点研发计划“张家口首都'两区’生态环境保护与水资源涵养技术研究与示范” (22377001D);河北省教育厅重点项目“北方农牧交错带典型饲草农田水分传输过程与适水灌溉制度研究”(ZD2022015);河北省科技厅外专引智项目“冀西北集约农业环境评估模型联合研发”
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007
  中图分类号： TV121
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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李赟, 李博睿, 张益闽, 等. 基于Budyko假设的清水河和白河流域径流变化及其影响因素分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(3):56-64.

Li Yun, Li Borui, Zhang Yimin, et al. Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 56-64.
李赟, 李博睿, 张益闽, 等. 基于Budyko假设的清水河和白河流域径流变化及其影响因素分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(3):56-64. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007.

Li Yun, Li Borui, Zhang Yimin, et al. Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 56-64. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007.

摘要

[目的

]

综合分析清水河流域和白河流域的年径流变化及其主导因素，进一步揭示永定河流域和潮白河流域实际径流的变化及其影响因素，旨在为张家口地区水资源规划与管理提供理论依据。[方法

]

基于Budyko模型以永定河上游的清水河流域和潮白河上游的白河流域为研究对象构建流域水热耦合平衡方程，精确计算潜在蒸散发对主要气象因子的敏感系数，再通过敏感系数计算径流对主要气象因子的弹性系数，进一步计算气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。[结果

]

①近年来清水河流域和白河流域各气象因子的弹性系数呈现增加的趋势，这种趋势揭示了这两个流域日益增强的气候—水文耦合关系。和白河流域相比，清水河流域的水文过程对气候变化更加敏感。②人类活动对清水河流域和白河流域的径流量变化起主导作用。清水河流域和白河流域人类活动对径流变化的影响率分别是65.37%和83.90%。③较之于Fu，Choudhury-Yang和Wang-Tang公式，Zhang公式在清水河流域和白河流域具有更好的适用性，能较好地模拟流域的实际蒸散发量，R

达到0.97。[结论

]

人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响率为65.37%～83.90%，气候因素的影响率为16.10%～34.63%，今后应同时考虑气候和人类活动的影响，继续加强水分限制区的径流蒸散过程机理研究，以保障水资源安全。

Abstract

[Objective] The annual runoff changes and leading factors in Qingshuihe River basin and Baihe River basin were comprehensively analyzed

and the actual runoff changes and influencing factors in the two river basins were further revealed

in order to provide theoretical basis for water resources planning and management in Zhangjiakou region. [Methods] Based on Budyko model

the study was conducted for the Qingshui River basin in the upper reaches of the Yongding River and the Baihe River basin in the upper reaches of the Chaobai River. Coupled water-heat balance equations for the basins were constructed. Sensitivity coefficients of potential evapotranspiration to major meteorological factors were accurately calculated

and then elasticity coefficients of runoff to major meteorological factors from the sensitivity coefficients were calculated. Finally

the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes were calculated. [Results] ① The elasticity coefficients of meteorological factors in the Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin showed increasing trends in recent years

indicating that the increasing climate-hydrology coupling in these two basins and the hydrological processes in the Qingshui River basin were more sensitive to climate change than the coupling and processes in the Baihe River basin. ② Human activities dominated changes in the runoff of the Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin. The contribution rates of human activities to runoff changes in the Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin were 65.37% and 83.90%

respectively. ③ Compared with the Fu

Choudhury-Yang

and Wang-Tang formulas

the Zhang formula had better applicability in Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin. Actual evapotranspiration from the basins was modeled better

with the R2 value reaching 0.97. [Conclusion] The contribution of human activities to runoff changes in the study area ranged from 65.37% to 83.90%

and the contribution of climatic factors ranged from 16.10% to 34.63%. In the future

the impact of climate and human activities should be considered at the same time. Continued efforts should be made to strengthen research on the mechanisms and processes of runoff and evapotranspiration in water limited environments

therefore to ensure the security of water resources.

关键词

Keywords

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