基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测

廖超明; 韦媛媛; 云子恒; 谭绵方; 唐丹

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.01.040

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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测

试验研究

- 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测
- Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Pearl River Delta Based on PLUS and InVEST Models
- 水土保持通报 2024年44卷第1期页码：410-420
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南宁师范大学自然资源与测绘学院,广西,南宁,530001
  2. 广西自然资源职业技术学院,广西,崇左,532100
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“基于卫星对地观测技术的广西'山’字型构造时空演变特征研究”(42164001);广西2022年自治区级职业教育专业教学资源库建设项目(GZ202220);广西2022年本科教育教学重点项目建设经费(602030389173301)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.01.040
  中图分类号： X87;F301.2
- 纸质出版：2024
- 稿件说明：
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廖超明, 韦媛媛, 云子恒, 等. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(1):410-420.

Liao Chaoming, Wei Yuanyuan, Yun Ziheng, et al. Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Pearl River Delta Based on PLUS and InVEST Models[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(1): 410-420.
廖超明, 韦媛媛, 云子恒, 等. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的珠三角碳储量时空演变与预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2024,44(1):410-420. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.01.040.

Liao Chaoming, Wei Yuanyuan, Yun Ziheng, et al. Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Pearl River Delta Based on PLUS and InVEST Models[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(1): 410-420. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.01.040.

摘要

[目的

]

探究珠三角地区2005-2020年土地利用变化及其对碳储量的影响

并对2035年珠三角的土地利用格局和碳储量进行模拟预测

以期为珠三角地区"双碳"目标下的国土空间规划和生态决策提供科学依据。[方法

]

基于2005-2020年4期土地利用数据

以珠三角城市群为研究区域

采用PLUS模型和InVEST模型对该区的土地利用变化和碳储量演变进行分析

并预测其2035年土地利用空间格局和碳储量变化趋势。[结果

]

①2005-2020年

珠三角地区碳储量先增加后减少

林地、建设用地和未利用地增多促进碳储量增长了4.82×10

耕地、草地和水域减少导致碳储量减少了5.10×10

t。②预计2035年

随着建设用地和林地的增加

该区碳储量较2020年增长5.75×10

生态环境向好发展。③该区碳储量表现出"四周高

中部低"的空间分布格局

与土地利用空间分布具有显著一致性

即碳储量高值区集中在林地、耕地和草地

碳储量低值区集聚在建设用地。[结论

]

随着未来城市发展需要

政府部门应进行土地综合开发利用

采取生物、工程技术等生态修复措施

提升区域固碳能力

助力实现碳中和目标。

Abstract

[Objective] The land use change and its impact on carbon storage was studied from 2005 to 2020

and the land use pattern and carbon storage in the Pearl River Delta in 2035 were simulated and predicted

in order to provide a scientific basis for the territorial spatial planning and ecological decision-making under the dual carbon goal in the Pearl River delta region.[Methods] Based on land use data for four periods from 2005 to 2020

land use change and carbon storage evolution in the Pearl River delta urban agglomeration were analyzed by using the PLUS model and the InVEST model. The spatial pattern of land use and the carbon storage change trend in 2035 were predicted.[Results] ①From 2005 to 2020

carbon stocks initially increased and then decreased. The increased area of forest land

construction land

and unused land increased carbon stocks by 4.82×107 t

and the decreased area of cultivated land

grassland and water area decreased carbon stocks by 5.10×107 t. ② In 2035

with an expected increase of construction land and forest land

carbon storage will increase by 5.75×107 t compared with 2020

and the ecological environment will improve. ③ Carbon storage showed a spatial distribution pattern of "higher in the surrounding areas and lower in the middle" that was significantly consistent with the spatial distribution of land use

i.e.

the high-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in forest land

cultivated land

and grassland

and the low-value carbon storage areas were concentrated in construction land.[Conclusion] With the needs of future urban development

government departments should carry out comprehensive land development and utilization

adopt ecological restoration measures based on biological and engineering technology

and improve regional carbon sequestration capacity so as to achieve carbon neutrality.

关键词

Keywords

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