鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量时空演变与情景预测

卫泽柱; 董斌; 许海锋; 徐志立; 陆志鹏; 刘筱

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230526.003

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鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量时空演变与情景预测

试验研究

- 鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量时空演变与情景预测
- Spatio-temporal Evolution and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in Typical Wetlands in Poyang Lake Region
- 水土保持通报 2023年43卷第3期页码：290-300
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽农业大学理学院,安徽,合肥,230036
  2. 安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,安徽,合肥,230036
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“农业开发模式对长江中下游典型湿地越冬白头鹤栖息地影响研究”(32071600)，“越冬珍稀鹤类地理分布低自然湿地土地利用变化的响应机制”(41571101);安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(KJ2020A0112);安徽省自然资源科技项目(2022-k-1)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230526.003
  中图分类号： X36;S157.4;X171.1
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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卫泽柱, 董斌, 许海锋, 等. 鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量时空演变与情景预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):290-300.

Wei Zezhu, Dong Bin, Xu Haifeng, et al. Spatio-temporal Evolution and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in Typical Wetlands in Poyang Lake Region[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 290-300.
卫泽柱, 董斌, 许海锋, 等. 鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量时空演变与情景预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):290-300. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230526.003.

Wei Zezhu, Dong Bin, Xu Haifeng, et al. Spatio-temporal Evolution and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in Typical Wetlands in Poyang Lake Region[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 290-300. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230526.003.

摘要

[目的

]

分析鄱阳湖湿地生态系统碳储量时空特征，为下一步鄱阳湖地区湿地保护，实现区域“碳达峰、碳中和”提供科学依据。[方法

]

结合InVEST和GeoSoS-FLUS模型，计算2000—2020年鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量，并预测自然发展情景与生态保护情景下2030年碳储量变化。借助地理探测器模型，探究碳储量变化的驱动因素。[结果

]

①2000

2010

2020年鄱阳湖地区典型湿地碳储量分别为2.42×10

，2.48×10

，2.46×10

t。②高碳储量集中于中西部林地，低碳储量集中于中东部、西部和北部的湖泊水域。③土地利用是碳储量转移的主导因素，其中沼泽草地、沼泽地、林地、耕地对碳储量转移的解释力依次降低。④相较于自然发展情景，生态保护情景2020—2030年碳储量变化速率由-17.81%变化为-1.09%。[结论

]

合理的生态保护政策可以有效地保障湿地的固碳能力，应强化国土用途管制

落实生态保护措施

为提升区域碳储能力提供保障。

Abstract

[Objective] The temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon storage in the Poyang Lake wetland ecosystem were analyzed in order to provide scientifically based recommendations to protect Poyang Lake wetlands in the future and to produce regional "carbon peak and carbon neutrality".[Methods] InVEST and GeoSoS-FLUS models were combined to calculate carbon storage of typical wetlands in the Poyang Lake region from 2000 to 2020

and to predict carbon storage changes in 2030 under natural development scenarios and ecological protection scenarios. The factors driving carbon storage changes were determined by means of the geographic detector model.[Results] ① The carbon reserves of typical wetlands in the Poyang Lake region in 2000

2010 and 2020 were 2.42×106 t 2.48×106 t and 2.46×106 t

respectively. ② The high carbon reserves were concentrated in the central and western forests

while the low carbon reserves were concentrated in the east

central

western and northern lakes. ③ Land use was the dominant factor affecting carbon storage transfer. The explanatory power of vegetative cover type with respect to carbon storage transfer followed the order of marsh grassland> marshland>forest land>cultivated land. ④ Compared with the natural development scenario

the change rate of carbon storage for the ecological protection scenario changed from -17.81% to -1.09% during the period from 2020 to 2030.[Conclusion] Reasonable ecological protection policies can effectively guarantee the carbon sequestration capacity of wetlands. Land use control practices should be strengthened and ecological protection measures should be implemented as as to guarantee improvement in regional carbon storage capacity.

关键词

Keywords

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