[Objective] The spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province were determined to predict the change trend of agricultural carbon emissions during the next ten years in order to formulate an agricultural carbon sequestration and emission reduction scheme

and to promote the transformation to low-carbon and green agricultural production. [Methods] We used a carbon emission equity evaluation model

GeoDetector

and the GM (1

1) model to accomplish the study objectives. [Results] ① Agricultural net carbon emissions in Henan Province declined over time during the study period

with a distribution pattern of “high in the southwest and low in the northeast”. Carbon emissions from animal husbandry accounted for a large proportion of total emissions

and carbon emissions were mainly from cattle

sheep

and pigs. Wheat

corn and vegetables contributed more to carbon absorption than other sinks. ② The ecological carrying coefficient of agricultural carbon emissions was higher in the north and south

and lower in the west. The coefficient of economic contribution was high in the southeast and low in the southwest. ③ The agricultural employee population

per capita disposable income of rural residents

agricultural machinery gross power

and fiscal expenditures on education were the key factors affecting spatial differences in agricultural carbon emissions

and interactions among these factors were strong. ④ Agricultural net carbon emissions in Henan Province will continue to decrease from 2021 to 2030. It is estimated that Henan Province will achieve the goal of agricultural carbon neutrality by 2029. [Conclusion] In the future

Henan Province should strengthen science popularization

actively promote low-carbon agricultural production technology

and increase the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of agricultural resources. Additionally

all localities should give increased attention to system integration

strengthening regional cooperation

and achieving regional integration of agricultural carbon emission reduction.