基于PLUS的耕地驱动因素分析与未来预测——以图们江流域为例

吕晶; 金日; 王镜植; 张鹏; 朱卫红

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230131.002

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基于PLUS的耕地驱动因素分析与未来预测——以图们江流域为例

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- 基于PLUS的耕地驱动因素分析与未来预测——以图们江流域为例
- Analysis of Driving Factors and Predictions of Arable Land Area Based on PLUS Model-A Case Study of Tumen River Basin
- 水土保持通报 2023年43卷第3期页码：203-212
- 作者机构：
  
  延边大学地理与海洋科学学院, 湿地生态功能与生态安全重点实验室, 吉林延吉,133000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金重点项目“图们江流域湿地退化及其环境效应模拟研究”(41830643);吉林省教育厅科学研究项目(JJKH20210567KJ);延边大学科技发展计划(延大科合字(2019)第2号)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230131.002
  中图分类号： F301.2;F323.2
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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吕晶, 金日, 王镜植, 等. 基于PLUS的耕地驱动因素分析与未来预测——以图们江流域为例[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):203-212.

Lyu Jing, Jin Ri, Wang Jingzhi, et al. Analysis of Driving Factors and Predictions of Arable Land Area Based on PLUS Model-A Case Study of Tumen River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 203-212.
吕晶, 金日, 王镜植, 等. 基于PLUS的耕地驱动因素分析与未来预测——以图们江流域为例[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):203-212. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230131.002.

Lyu Jing, Jin Ri, Wang Jingzhi, et al. Analysis of Driving Factors and Predictions of Arable Land Area Based on PLUS Model-A Case Study of Tumen River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 203-212. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230131.002.

摘要

[目的

]

探究图们江流域耕地时空演化特征及其驱动因素并预测与《吉林省国土空间规划(2021—2035年)》(以下简称《规划》)相关的耕地变化状况，为图们江流域耕地资源合理规划与利用提供依据和决策支持。[方法

]

通过土地利用转移矩阵与重心转移分析其时空演化特征，耦合马尔可夫模型和PLUS模型，预测不同情景下耕地数量和空间变化。[结果

]

①1990年以来研究区耕地面积呈持续减少趋势但整体处于可控状态，到2020年总量共减少了440.42 km

，减少的耕地主要转化为林地和建设用地。②耕地的空间分布具有明显的差异性，主要集中在中下游区域，并且耕地重心以每年43.1 m的速度逐渐向西南偏移。③社会经济因素中的GDP值、道路交通和人口等与自然因素中的坡度和降水是影响过去耕地变化的主要驱动因素。④预测结果表明，两种情景下耕地总量均呈现逐年减少的趋势，目标导向情景下2035年耕地总量比2020年将减少128.57 km

，减少的耕地主要集中在规划的开发区与保护区。[结论

]

过去30 a随着社会经济的快速发展，研究区内耕地承载的压力越来越大，而且当前的状况不利于《规划》目标的实现。为了实现耕地数量、质量与生态三位一体保护与耕地资源的可持续发展，可以适当开发研究区上游与西部地区的耕地资源，推动原有农业实现规模化、科技化。此外，目标导向情景更有利于图们江流域耕地资源的可持续发展，应当继续实施《规划》目标。

Abstract

[Objective] The spatial and temporal evolutionary characteristics of arable land in the Tumen River basin and the driving factors for changes in arable land area were explored

and changes in arable land area associated with the Land Spatial Planning of Jilin Province (2021-2035) were predicted in order to provide a decision support basis for the rational planning and utilization of arable land resources in the Tumen River Basin.[Methods] Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of arable land were explored through an analysis of a land use shift matrix and a center of gravity shift analysis. Markov and PLUS models were coupled to predict the quantity and spatial changes of cultivated land area under different scenarios.[Results] ① The total area of arable land has been decreasing continuously since 1990

but the overall situation was under control. The total area had decreased by 440.42 km2 by 2020

with arable land having been mainly transformed into forest land and construction land. ② There were obvious differences in the spatial distribution of arable land

with arable land concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin. The center of gravity of arable land gradually shifted to the southwest at a rate of 43.1 m per year. ③ Socioeconomic factors (GDP

road traffic

population) and natural factors (slope

precipitation) were the main drivers influencing arable land changes in the past. ④ The total amount of arable land for both scenarios decreased over time. The total area of arable land in 2035 in the goal-oriented scenario will be 128.57 km2 less than in 2020. The reduction in arable land will be concentrated mainly in the planned development zones and protected areas.[Conclusion] Pressures on arable land in the study area have increased because of rapid socioeconomic development over the past 30 years

and the current trends are not conducive to achieving the land spatial planning goals. In order to protect arable land quantity

quality

and ecology

and to sustainably develop arable land resources

those resources in the upstream and western areas of the study area must be developed appropriately so that the scale and technology of original agriculture can be promoted. Additionally

goal-oriented scenarios are more conducive to the sustainable development of arable land resources in the Tumen River basin

and land spatial planning goals should continue to be implemented.

关键词

Keywords

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