基于PLUS和InVEST模型的邯郸市碳储量空间分布特征研究

张鹏; 李良涛; 苏玉姣; 王清涛; 韩红英; 韩宏伟; 李晓婧

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230111.001

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基于PLUS和InVEST模型的邯郸市碳储量空间分布特征研究

试验研究

- 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的邯郸市碳储量空间分布特征研究
- Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Handan City Based on PLUS and InVEST Models
- 水土保持通报 2023年43卷第3期页码：338-348
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河北工程大学园林与生态工程学院,河北,邯郸,056000
  2. 邯郸市林业和草原科研中心,河北,邯郸,056000
  3. 邯郸市园林局,河北,邯郸,056000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  河北省林草厅科研课题“区域森林碳汇监测评价技术研究”(2119061);河北省峰峰矿区4个一科技示范基地项目(202206);河北省自然基金面上项目“模拟增温和干旱对太行山退化生境中人工林更新的影响研究”(C2020402022)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230111.001
  中图分类号： X87;F124.5
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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张鹏, 李良涛, 苏玉姣, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的邯郸市碳储量空间分布特征研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):338-348.

Zhang Peng, Li Liangtao, Su Yujiao, et al. Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Handan City Based on PLUS and InVEST Models[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 338-348.
张鹏, 李良涛, 苏玉姣, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的邯郸市碳储量空间分布特征研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):338-348. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230111.001.

Zhang Peng, Li Liangtao, Su Yujiao, et al. Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Handan City Based on PLUS and InVEST Models[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 338-348. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230111.001.

摘要

[目的

]

分析河北省邯郸市近20 a土地利用格局及碳储量分布，并探讨生态保护政策下未来10 a的土地利用变化趋势，为增加城市碳汇和实现城市可持续发展提供参考依据。[方法

]

使用PLUS模型，选取自然、社会驱动因素及生态规划限制因子，分析邯郸市在2000—2020年及自然发展情景和生态保护情景下2030年的土地利用变化规律，并结合InVEST模型，评估邯郸市2000—2030年3期碳储量。[结果

]

①邯郸土地利用类型的分布呈现“西部林地，东中部耕地”的总体空间分布特征，耕地和人造地表之间的土地利用转移占总土地利用变化的96.58%； ②邯郸市碳密度空间分布呈现西部高东部低的特点，碳储量总体呈下降趋势，碳损失在2010年突增，耕地的过度侵占是导致邯郸市碳损失的最主要原因； ③与自然发展情景相比，生态保护情景下土地利用变化趋于克制，虽然生态用地的提升潜力一般，但由于人类活动受到限制，避免了生态资源的消耗； ④2020—2030年自然发展情景和生态保护情景下邯郸市碳储量变化分别为减少4.23×10

t和增加2.16×10

t。各区县碳损失风险显著降低，不同区县碳汇潜力差异明显。[结论

]

人造地表侵占耕地是导致碳损失的主要原因。生态保护政策干预下，各区县碳损失风险显著降低，不同区县也存在明显差异，碳损失更易发生于东中部平原地区，西南部的太行山东麓县区则具有较强的碳汇潜力，需针对差异化表现灵活布局。

Abstract

[Objective] The land use patterns and carbon storage distribution in Handan City

Hebei Province during the recent 20 years were analyzed

and the trends in land use changes under an ecological protection policy duirng the next 10 years were determined

in order to provide evidence for both increasing urban carbon sinks and realizing sustainable urban development.[Methods] Based on the PLUS model

natural and social driving factors were selected to analyze land use change patterns in Handan City in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection from 2000 to 2020. Carbon storage was also evaluated by the InVEST model in Handan City from 2000 to 2030.[Results] ① The spatial distribution of land use types in Handan City showed the characteristics of "woodland in the west and cultivated land in the east". The land use transfer between cultivated land and artificial habitats accounted for 96.58% of the total land use change. ② The spatial distribution of carbon density was characterized as "high in the west and low in the east" in Handan City. Carbon storage decreased over time. Excessive encroachment of cultivated land led to a dramatic increase in carbon loss in Handan City in 2010. Excessive encroachment of cultivated land was the main cause of carbon loss in Handan City. ③ Compared with the natural development scenario

land use change under an ecological protection scenario tended to be restrained. Although the potential for ecological land improvement was average

consumption of ecological resources was avoided due to limited human activities. ④ Under both the natural development and ecological protection scenarios

carbon storage from 2020 to 2030 in Handan City was simulated to decrease by 4.23×106 t and increase by 2.16×104 t

respectively. The risk of carbon loss was significantly reduced across the city

and the potential of carbon sinks in different areas of the city appeared to differ significantly.[Conclusion] The encroachment of cultivated land was the main cause of carbon loss over time. Implementation of ecological protection policies significantly reduced the risk of carbon loss in each district and county

and there are obvious differences among different districts and counties. Carbon loss was more likely to occur in the east-central plain region

while the districts and counties at the eastern foot of the Taihang Mountain in the southwest had strong carbon sink potential

therefore a flexible plan should be made according to location differences.

关键词

Keywords

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