基于VSD-云物元模型的长沙市水资源脆弱性评价及障碍因子诊断

邓红卫; 李艺

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.06.022

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基于VSD-云物元模型的长沙市水资源脆弱性评价及障碍因子诊断

试验研究

- 基于VSD-云物元模型的长沙市水资源脆弱性评价及障碍因子诊断
- Evaluation of Water Resource Vulnerability in Changsha City Based on VSD and Cloud Matter-element Model, and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors
- 水土保持通报 2023年43卷第6期页码：174-184
- 作者机构：
  
  中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南,长沙,410083
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  金属矿山安全与健康国家重点实验室开放基金项目“基于超深部固废源头减量低碳清洁闭环采矿方式研究”（2022-JSKSSYS-08）;中南大学校企联合创新项目（105332020034,053320200344）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.06.022
  中图分类号： TV213.4
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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邓红卫, 李艺. 基于VSD-云物元模型的长沙市水资源脆弱性评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(6):174-184.

Deng Hongwei, Li Yi. Evaluation of Water Resource Vulnerability in Changsha City Based on VSD and Cloud Matter-element Model, and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(6): 174-184.
邓红卫, 李艺. 基于VSD-云物元模型的长沙市水资源脆弱性评价及障碍因子诊断[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(6):174-184. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.06.022.

Deng Hongwei, Li Yi. Evaluation of Water Resource Vulnerability in Changsha City Based on VSD and Cloud Matter-element Model, and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(6): 174-184. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.06.022.

摘要

[目的] 基于脆弱性内涵对湖南省长沙市水资源脆弱性进行评价并明确其障碍因子，为该市水资源管理调控策略的科学制定提供理论依据。[方法] 结合VSD概念框架建立综合评价指标体系，运用博弈论来确定组合权重，基于云物元模型对长沙市2014—2020年水资源脆弱性状况进行综合评价，并利用障碍度模型对影响该市水资源脆弱性的障碍因子进行诊断分析。[结果] ①2014—2020年，长沙市水资源脆弱性呈递减态势，由中等脆弱水平降低至轻微脆弱水平； ②各准则层脆弱性演变趋势各异，暴露度维度脆弱性持续较高，敏感性维度脆弱性变化不稳定，适应性维度脆弱性呈明显下降态势； ③暴露度准则层障碍度最大，人均水资源量、人均日生活用水量、工业废水排放总量、上型水库蓄水量、年降水量是制约长沙市水资源脆弱性下降的主要障碍因子。[结论] 为进一步降低长沙市水资源脆弱性等级，应协调好社会经济发展与水资源开发利用之间的关系，减少人类活动对水资源系统的压力，进一步加强节水监督管理，加大水库建设投资力度，促进再生水和雨水资源化利用。

Abstract

[Objective] The vulnerability of water resources in Changsha City was evaluated based on the connotation of vulnerability and its obstacles factors were identified

in order to provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of water resources management and control strategies in Changsha City

Hunan Province. [Methods] A comprehensive evaluation index system was established based on the vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) conceptual framework. Game theory was used to determine the combined weight. The cloud matter-element model was used to comprehensively evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in Changsha City from 2014 to 2020. The obstacle degree model was used to diagnose and analyze the obstacle factors affecting the vulnerability of water resources in the city. [Results] ① From 2014 to 2020

the vulnerability of water resources in Changsha City showed a decreasing trend

from a medium level of vulnerability to a slight level of vulnerability; ② The evolution trends of vulnerability at each criterion level were different

the vulnerability of the exposure dimension was consistently high

the vulnerability of the sensitivity dimension was unstable

and the vulnerability of the adaptability dimension showed a clear downward trend; ③ The obstacle degree for the exposure criterion level was the highest

and per capita water resources

per capita daily water consumption

total industrial wastewater discharge

water storage capacity of the upper-type reservoir

and annual precipitation were the main obstacle factors that restricted the decline of water resource vulnerability in Changsha City. [Conclusion] In order to further reduce the level of vulnerability of water resources in Changsha City

the relationship between socio-economic development and the development and utilization of water resources should be coordinated in the future to reduce the pressure of human activities on the water resources system

and at the same time

the supervision and management of water conservation should be further strengthened

the investment in the construction of reservoirs should be intensified

and the utilization of recycled water and rainwater resources should be promoted.

关键词

Keywords

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