基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测

汪勇政; 徐雅利; 余浩然

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.032

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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测

试验研究

- 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测
- Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Changes of Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model
- 水土保持通报 2023年43卷第3期页码：277-289
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽建筑大学建筑与规划学院,安徽,合肥,230601
  2. 安徽省城镇化发展研究中心,安徽,合肥,230601
  3. 南京林业大学风景园林学院,江苏,南京,210042
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“'古徽州’传统聚落空间网络特征、形成机制及对乡村规划的启示”(51678001);安徽省高校省级人文社会科学研究项目“基于人才支援的皖西大别山区传统村落可持续发展研究”(SK2020A0257)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.032
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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汪勇政, 徐雅利, 余浩然. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):277-289.

Wang Yongzheng, Xu Yali, Yu Haoran. Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Changes of Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 277-289.
汪勇政, 徐雅利, 余浩然. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的安徽省碳储量时空变化预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):277-289. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.032.

Wang Yongzheng, Xu Yali, Yu Haoran. Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Changes of Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 277-289. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.032.

摘要

[目的

]

分析安徽省2000年以来碳储量的时空变化及空间分布特征，为未来该区土地管理决策和生态系统碳库管理提供有效指导。[方法

]

以安徽省为例，基于2000，2005，2010，2015，2020年5期土地利用数据，采用PLUS模型模拟2030，2040年不同情景下土地利用格局，并运用InVEST模型定量评估不同情景下陆地生态系统碳储量的空间变化。[结果

]

①2000—2020年安徽省约有8.03%土地发生了转移，耕地与建设用地之间的转化是该省土地利用变化的主要特征。②2000—2020年陆地生态系统碳储量总体呈下降趋势，下降了1.01×10

t。空间格局上呈现“南高北低”的特征，碳密度高值区主要分布在皖南、皖西山区。③2020—2040年自然发展情景下碳储量下降趋势明显，耕地保护情景下降速度有所减缓，生态保护情景下碳储量明显增加，增量为3.07×10

t。[结论

]

实施生态保护政策能够有效提高区域生态系统碳储量，增强生态系统服务功能。未来在进行土地利用管理决策时应统筹考虑生态保护和耕地保护，促进区域生态系统良性可持续发展。

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