基于PLUS模型的雅康高速路段景观生态风险评价

刘静静; 李旭; 彭培好

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.019

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基于PLUS模型的雅康高速路段景观生态风险评价

试验研究

- 基于PLUS模型的雅康高速路段景观生态风险评价
- Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Ya'an-Kangding Expressway Based on PLUS Model
- 水土保持通报 2023年43卷第3期页码：148-158
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 成都理工大学地球科学学院,四川,成都,610059
  2. 成都理工大学旅游与城乡规划学院,四川,成都,610059
  3. 成都理工大学生态资源与景观研究所,四川,成都,610059
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  第二次青藏高原综合考察研究子专题“人类活动对生态资产与生态系统服务的影响”(2019QZKK0307)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.019
  中图分类号： X22;F301.2
- 纸质出版：2023
- 稿件说明：
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刘静静, 李旭, 彭培好. 基于PLUS模型的雅康高速路段景观生态风险评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):148-158.

Liu Jingjing, Li Xu, Peng Peihao. Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Ya'an-Kangding Expressway Based on PLUS Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 148-158.
刘静静, 李旭, 彭培好. 基于PLUS模型的雅康高速路段景观生态风险评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023,43(3):148-158. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.019.

Liu Jingjing, Li Xu, Peng Peihao. Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Ya'an-Kangding Expressway Based on PLUS Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 148-158. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.03.019.

摘要

[目的] 评价区域景观生态风险，揭示其时空变化规律，为降低区域生态风险，维护区域生态安全，推进区域绿色发展提供支撑。[方法] 以土地利用数据为基础，通过其变化来建立景观生态风险评价模型，探讨2000—2020年雅康高速公路穿越县市景观生态风险的时空变化特征，并利用最优参数的地理探测器模型定量分析景观生态风险变化的驱动因素，采用PLUS模型模拟2035年雅康高速经过县市景观生态风险的空间分布特征和变化趋势。[结果] ①2000—2020年，研究区主要景观类型为林地、草地、耕地，不透水面面积增长速率最快，林地面积增加最多； ②研究区景观生态风险等级以低、较低和中风险等级为主，风险等级由高到低呈向外扩散现象； ③NDVI值、高程、年均降水等自然因素是景观生态风险变化的主要驱动因子； ④2035年两种不同情景下研究区中、较高、高风险等级的面积均有所下降，其中生态保护情景下，下降较为明显。[结论] 研究区内景观生态风险等级较低，以低、较低和中风险等级为主，生态环境呈逐渐向好趋势。生态保护情景更加符合区域可持续发展理念。

Abstract

[Objective] The regional landscape ecological risks were evaluated

and their spatiotemporal variation was analyzed in order to provide important support for reducing regional ecological risks

maintaining regional ecological security

and promoting regional green development.[Methods] We constructed a landscape ecological risk assessment model based on land use change

and determined the temporal and spatial change characteristics of landscape ecological risk for the Ya'an-Kangding Expressway crossing counties and cities from 2000 to 2020. A geographic detector model with optimized parameters was used to quantitatively analyze the driving factors of landscape ecological risk change. We used the PLUS model to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics and changing trends of landscape ecological risks for the Ya'an-Kangding Expressway passing through counties and cities in 2035.[Results] ① From 2000 to 2020

the main landscape types in the study area were forest land

grassland

and cultivated land

with the fastest growth rate occurring for the impervious surface area (expressway)

and the largest increase occurring in forest land area. ② Low and medium landscape ecological risk grades were the main factors. The risk grades spread outward from high to low. ③ Natural factors such as NDVI

elevation

and average annual precipitation were the main driving factors for changes in landscape ecological risk. ④ In 2035

the areas of medium

high

and high risk grades in the study area will decrease under the two different scenarios. The area of significant decline will be particularly obvious under the ecological protection scenario.[Conclusion] The landscape ecological risk levels in the study area were relatively low

mainly low

lower

and medium risk levels

and the ecological environment was gradually improving. The ecological protection scenario was more consistent with the concept of regional sustainable development.

关键词

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