基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究

吴艳霞; 魏志斌; 王爱琼

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.039

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基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究

试验研究

- 基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究
- Ecological Safety Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Yellow River Basin Based on DPSIR Model
- 水土保持通报 2022年42卷第6期页码：322-331
- 作者机构：
  
  西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西,西安,710054
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家社会科学基金项目"新发展阶段黄河流域生态安全评价、预警及实现机制研究"(21BJY169)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.039
  中图分类号： F124.3
- 纸质出版：2022
- 稿件说明：
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吴艳霞, 魏志斌, 王爱琼. 基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022,42(6):322-331.

Wu Yanxia, Wei Zhibin, Wang Aiqiong. Ecological Safety Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Yellow River Basin Based on DPSIR Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(6): 322-331.
吴艳霞, 魏志斌, 王爱琼. 基于DPSIR模型的黄河流域生态安全评价及影响因素研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022,42(6):322-331. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.039.

Wu Yanxia, Wei Zhibin, Wang Aiqiong. Ecological Safety Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Yellow River Basin Based on DPSIR Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(6): 322-331. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.039.

摘要

[目的] 对黄河流域生态安全进行评价并分析其影响因素，为促进黄河流域生态高质量发展和实施黄河国家战略提供理论依据。 [方法] 基于DPSIR模型构建生态安全指标体系，运用熵权-TOPSIS法对2011-2020年黄河流域沿线省域生态安全进行评价，并利用BP-DEMATEL模型剖析生态安全关键因素。 [结果] ①黄河流域生态安全整体水平较低但呈缓慢上升的态势，10 a来生态安全指数均值未超过0.4，但从2011年的0.322逐步上升至2020年的0.365。 ②各省区生态安全呈现上升、波动和衰退3种演变态势，生态安全指数均值从高到低依次为：山东(0.431)、四川(0.372)、内蒙古(0.371)、河南(0.362)、山西(0.349)、宁夏(0.343)、陕西(0.326)、甘肃(0.302)、青海(0.301)。 ③BP-DEMATEL结果表明，生态安全呈上升态势的省域关键因素分散于压力指标层外，呈波动和衰退态势的省域关键因素分别集中分布在影响和压力指标层。 [结论] 黄河流域生态安全整体呈现良性的演变态势，但区域发展不均衡，各省域应围绕关键因素实施调控。

Abstract

[Objective] The ecological safety of the Yellow River basin was evaluated and the influencing factors were analyzed in order to promote high-quality ecological development of the Yellow River basin and to implement the “Yellow River National Strategy”. [Methods] An ecological safety index system was constructed based on the DPSIR model. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method was used to comprehensively evaluate the ecological safety of the provinces along the Yellow River basin from 2011 to 2020. The BP-DEMATEL model was used to analyze the key factors of ecological safety. [Results] ① The overall level of ecological safety in the Yellow River basin was low

but showed a slow upward trend. The average ecological safety index was no more than 0.4 in the past 10 years

but has gradually increased from 0.322 in 2011 to 0.365 in 2020. ② The ecological safety of each province showed three evolutionary trends of rising

fluctuating

and declining. The average ecological safety indexes

from high to low

were: Shandong (0.431)

Sichuan (0.372)

Inner Mongolia (0.371)

He’nan (0.362)

Shanxi (0.349)

Ningxia (0.343)

Shaanxi (0.326)

Gansu (0.302)

Qinghai (0.301). ③ The BP-DEMATEL results showed that the key factors of the provinces with upward trends of ecological safety were scattered outside the pressure index layer. The key factors of the provinces with fluctuating and declining trends were concentrated in the impact and pressure index layers

respectively. [Conclusion] The ecological safety of the Yellow River basin as a whole showed a benign evolution trend

but regional development was unbalanced. Provinces should implement regulation and control around key factors.

关键词

Keywords

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