阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势及其驱动因素

郑佳翔; 孙桂丽; 苏香玲; 冉亚军; 郑旭

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.035

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阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势及其驱动因素

试验研究

- 阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势及其驱动因素
- Trends of Desertification Change and Its Driving Factors in Aksu Region
- 水土保持通报 2022年42卷第4期页码：278-285
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 新疆农业大学林学与风景园林学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830052
  2. 干旱区林业生态与产业技术重点实验室,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830052
  3. 新疆维吾尔自治区林业规划院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  新疆维吾尔自治区2021“三区人才”项目“乌什县荒漠资源调查、治理与修复”（2221-LYE1）;国家自然科学基金项目（41861046）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.035
  中图分类号： X171.1
- 纸质出版：2022
- 稿件说明：
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郑佳翔, 孙桂丽, 苏香玲, 等. 阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势及其驱动因素[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022,42(4):278-285.

Zheng Jiaxiang, Sun Guili, Su Xiangling, et al. Trends of Desertification Change and Its Driving Factors in Aksu Region[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(4): 278-285.
郑佳翔, 孙桂丽, 苏香玲, 等. 阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势及其驱动因素[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022,42(4):278-285. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.035.

Zheng Jiaxiang, Sun Guili, Su Xiangling, et al. Trends of Desertification Change and Its Driving Factors in Aksu Region[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(4): 278-285. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.035.

摘要

[目的] 对2009—2019年阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势及其驱动因素进行分析，为该区生态修复、因地制宜制定荒漠化防治政策提供科学依据。[方法] 基于《全国第六次荒漠化监测细则》构建荒漠化评价指标体系，在ArcGIS和IDRISI软件的支持下，对2009—2019年阿克苏地区荒漠化变化趋势进行评价，分析荒漠化驱动因素并做出预测。[结果] ①2009—2019年阿克苏地区荒漠化面积逐年降低，荒漠化呈现逆转态势。阿克苏地区荒漠化呈现较强的空间异质性，极重度荒漠化区域位于研究区南部与塔克拉玛干沙漠接壤地带，极重度荒漠化所占比例最大。②2009—2019年阿克苏地区荒漠化单一驱动因素分析结果显示，土地利用类型是阿克苏地区荒漠化最重要的影响因子，多驱动力因子交互作用对荒漠化演化的解释力比单因子更强，作用方式与强度表现为增强与非线性增强。③CA-Markov模型预测结果显示，在驱动因素不改变时，2019—2024年阿克苏地区荒漠化程度持续逆转，整体表现为极重度荒漠化转化为重度荒漠化，部分地区荒漠化面积扩张。[结论] 研究时段内，研究区荒漠化面积减少，荒漠化程度呈逆转态势，影响荒漠化主要因素为土地利用类型。在荒漠化的治理与防治过程中，应当结合荒漠化驱动因素，合理有效地实施荒漠化防治以及生态修复工程。

Abstract

[Objective] The trend and driving factors of desertification change in the Aksu region from 2009 to 2019 were studied in order to provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration in the region and for formulating desertification control policies according to local conditions.[Methods] A desertification evaluation index system was constructed based on the Sixth National Rules for Monitoring Desertification. The trend in desertification change in the Aksu region from 2009 to 2019 was evaluated with ArcGIS and IDRISI software

and the driving factors of desertification were analyzed and the predictions were made.[Results] ① The desertification area in the Aksu region decreased over time from 2009 to 2019

and desertification declined. Desertification in the Aksu region showed strong spatial heterogeneity

and the area of extremely severe desertification was located in the southern part of the study area bordering the Taklamakan Desert. The extremely severe desertification area accounted for the largest proportion of the desertification area. ② The results of the single driver analysis of desertification in the Aksu region from 2009 to 2019 showed that land use type was the most important factor influencing desertification in the Aksu region

and the interaction of multiple drivers had stronger explanatory power on desertification evolution than any single factor. The mode and intensity of action showed enhancement and non-linear enhancement

respectively. ③ The prediction results from the CA-Markov model showed that if the driving factors did not change

the degree of desertification in the Aksu region would continue to reverse during 2019-2024

and the overall change for the area would be from extremely severe desertification to severe desertification. The desertification area would expand in some regions.[Conclusion] The desertification area in the study area decreased during the study period

and the desertification degree declined. The main factor affecting desertification was land use type. Desertification control as well as ecological restoration projects should be carried out to reasonably and effectively control and prevent desertification by focusing on combinations of the desertification driving factors.

关键词

Keywords

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