基于人粮关系的陕西省耕地资源承载指数时空变化与预测

王祯; 吴金华; 李嘉会; 魏金戈

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.024

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基于人粮关系的陕西省耕地资源承载指数时空变化与预测

试验研究

- 基于人粮关系的陕西省耕地资源承载指数时空变化与预测
- Temporal and Spatial Changes and Prediction of Cultivated Land Resource Carrying Capacity Index in Shaanxi Province Based on Human-grain Relationship
- 水土保持通报 2022年42卷第2期页码：174-183
- 作者机构：
  
  长安大学土地工程学院,陕西,西安,710054
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然基金项目“基于坡位特征的黄丘区坡面植被恢复评价及模型构建”(41871190)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.024
  中图分类号： F301.21
- 纸质出版：2022
- 稿件说明：
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王祯, 吴金华, 李嘉会, 等. 基于人粮关系的陕西省耕地资源承载指数时空变化与预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022,42(2):174-183.

Wang Zhen, Wu Jinhua, Li Jiahui, et al. Temporal and Spatial Changes and Prediction of Cultivated Land Resource Carrying Capacity Index in Shaanxi Province Based on Human-grain Relationship[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 174-183.
王祯, 吴金华, 李嘉会, 等. 基于人粮关系的陕西省耕地资源承载指数时空变化与预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022,42(2):174-183. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.024.

Wang Zhen, Wu Jinhua, Li Jiahui, et al. Temporal and Spatial Changes and Prediction of Cultivated Land Resource Carrying Capacity Index in Shaanxi Province Based on Human-grain Relationship[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 174-183. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.024.

摘要

[目的] 分析陕西省2010—2019年耕地承载指数的时空变化特征，并对2020—2025年的耕地承载指数与人粮关系进行预测，为该区国土空间规划和耕地保护政策制定提供理论参考。[方法] 基于统计年鉴面板数据，运用重心迁移模型、地理探测器、GM (1，1)模型等方法开展研究。[结果] ①2010—2019年陕西省总体粮食产量、人口、耕地承载力都有所上升，耕地资源承载指数(LCCI)小幅度波动下降，人粮关系稍微缓和；各地级行政区耕地资源承载指数波动较大，变化剧烈的时间段为2010—2011年、2014—2015年、2017—2018年。②2010—2019年陕西省耕地承载指数区域差异明显，呈现出南高北低的空间格局，西安市、杨凌示范区为高值中心，榆林市为低值中心；从分区角度，耕地资源承载指数排序为：陕南地区＞关中地区＞陕北地区。10 a间陕西省的耕地资源承载指数重心位于咸阳市境内，总体迁移方向为从东北向西南，指向西安市与杨凌示范区。2013—2015年、2017—2018年两个时间段的路径存在明显的突变，与各地级行政区耕地承载指数的消长有关。③陕西省耕地资源承载指数时空变化最主要的影响因素是人均耕地面积，平均解释率为69.21%。④预测2020—2025年陕西省资源承载指数会小幅下降，空间格局仍为南高北低，除铜川市—渭南市、榆林市2个低值中心外，其余地级行政区的人粮关系较为紧张。[结论] 陕西省人粮关系较为紧张，各地级行政区的耕地资源承载指数变化呈现波动性，且空间异质性较强。陕西省耕地资源承载指数主要受人均耕地面积影响。

Abstract

[Objective] The temporal and spatial changes of the cultivated land resource carrying capacity index of Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed

and the cultivated land resource carrying capacity index and human-grain relationship were predicted from 2020 to 2025

in order to provide theoretical reference for territorial spatial planning and cultivated land protection policy in Shaanxi Province. [Methods] Based on the panel data of the statistical yearbook

the research was carried out by using the center of gravity migration model

Geodetector and GM(1

1) model. [Results] ① From 2010 to 2019

the overall grain production

population

and cultivated land carrying capacity of Shaanxi Province increased

while the LCCI (land carrying capacity index) fluctuated slightly and decreased

and the human-grain relationship slightly eased. The LCCI of different administrative region fluctuated greatly

and the time periods of the drastic changes occurred from 2010 to 2011

2014 to 2015

and 2017 to 2018. ② From 2010 to 2019

there were great regional differences in the LCCI in Shaanxi Province

showing a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north. Xi’an City and Yangling Agricultural Hi-tech Industries Demonstration Zone were high-value centers

while Yulin City was a low-value center. From the perspective of zoning

the order of the LCCI was Southern Shaanxi region＞ Guanzhong region＞ Northern Shaanxi region. The center of gravity of the LCCI of Shaanxi Province in the past 10 years was located in Xianyang City

and the overall migration direction was from northeast to southwest

pointing to Xi’an City and Yangling Agricultural Hi-tech Industries Demonstration Zone. There were obvious mutation in the path between 2013—2015 and 2017—2018

which was related to the fluctuation of the LCCI of different administrative regions. ③ The most important factor affecting the temporal and spatial changes of the LCCI in Shaanxi Province was the per capita cultivated land area

with an average explanatory rate of 69.21%. ④ It was predicted that the LCCI of Shaanxi Province would decline slightly from 2020 to 2025

and the spatial pattern would remain high in the south and low in the north. Except for the two low-value centers of Tongchuan City and Weinan City

Yulin City

the human-grain relationship in other administrative regions were more tense. [Conclusion] The human-grain relationship in Shaanxi Province is relatively tense

and the changes in the cultivated LCCI of various administrative regions show volatility and strong spatial heterogeneity. The cultivated LCCI in Shaanxi Province is mainly affected by the area of cultivated land per capita.

关键词

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