[Objective] The conflicts of three space types in oasis counties in the northwest arid zone were analyzed and simulated

in order to provide scientific reference for the rational layout of land space and sustainable development of the region. [Methods] Taking the oasis county of northwest arid zone—Mageti County

Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region as the study area

a spatial classification system was constructed based on the dominant land use function to divide the national land space into urban

agricultural and ecological space. A spatial conflict measurement model was constructed based on the landscape pattern index to explore the evolution characteristics of spatial conflict levels from 2009 to 2019. The CA-Markov model was used to predict the spatial layout in 2024 and analyze the characteristics of conflict intensity changes. [Results] The area of urban space increased from 1 537.74 hm2 to 4 582.24 hm2

and the area of agricultural space increased from 84 670.06 hm2 to 107 447.66 hm2

while the area of ecological space decreased by 25 822.69 hm2. ② The intensity of spatial conflict increased significantly from 2009 to 2019

and the proportion of medium spatial conflict

relative high spatial conflict and high spatial conflict evaluation units increased by 50.41%

13.45% and 0.53%

respectively. ③ In 2024

urban space and agricultural space would increase 2 981.19 and 4 285.96 hm2

respectively

and ecological space decrease 7 267.16 hm2. The conflict level would be dominated by medium spatial conflict

which account for 60.24%. [Conclusion] From 2009—2019

urban space and agricultural space increased year by year

while ecological space decreased

and the disordered change of all kinds of space led to the overall increase of spatial conflict intensity. Through the prediction

the change trend of the 3 types of space in 2024 would consistent with that in 2009—2019

and the medium spatial conflict was the main one.