南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区旱涝特征及风险预估

方思达; 刘敏; 任永建

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.040

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南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区旱涝特征及风险预估

试验研究

- 南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区旱涝特征及风险预估
- Drought and Waterlogging Characteristics and Risk Prediction in Different River Basin Areas of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project
- 水土保持通报 2018年38卷第6期页码：263-267
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 武汉区域气候中心,湖北,武汉,430074
  2. 湖北省气象服务中心,湖北,武汉,430205
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  2016年中国气候局气候变化专项“丹江口水库水源区和受水区旱涝配置特征及调水适应对策研究”（CCSF201620）;2016国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFE0102400）;2018中国气候局气候变化专项（CCSF201821）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.040
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2018
- 稿件说明：
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方思达, 刘敏, 任永建. 南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区旱涝特征及风险预估[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(6):263-267.

FANG Sida, LIU Min, REN Yongjian. Drought and Waterlogging Characteristics and Risk Prediction in Different River Basin Areas of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(6): 263-267.
方思达, 刘敏, 任永建. 南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区旱涝特征及风险预估[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(6):263-267. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.040.

FANG Sida, LIU Min, REN Yongjian. Drought and Waterlogging Characteristics and Risk Prediction in Different River Basin Areas of Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(6): 263-267. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.040.

摘要

[目的] 了解南水北调中线工程水源区与受水区历史旱涝变化特征，分析及预估该工程因气候变化导致“无水可调”的风险，为科学调度与决策提供依据。[方法] 利用南水北调中线工程流域内近500 a旱涝资料及1961—2015年气象站日降水量资料，分析近500 a来南水北调中线工程水源区及受水区的旱涝遭遇特征及调水保障概率，同时利用21个CMIP 5全球气候模式降尺度后的模拟预估结果，对RCP4.5排放情景下未来的旱涝遭遇特征进行预估研究。[结果] ①近500 a来，水源区旱年出现概率呈先减少后增加趋势，20世纪以来水源区干旱年出现概率处于历史高位，达31.7%；②受水区淮河流域的调水保障概率最高（达87.3%），唐白河流域调水保障概率最低（为78.4%）； ③20世纪以来各流域与水源区同旱概率均处于历史高位，汉—唐、汉—海持续同旱概率高于汉—淮； ④秋汛期（9—11月）为调水最有利的时段，非汛期3个流域的调水保障概率均在80%以上。⑤CMIP5模式预估结果显示未来各受水区调水保障概率均在87%以上。[结论] 20世纪以来水源区与受水区同旱概率处于近500 a来高位，未来调水朝有利方向发展，但21世纪后期面临较大的同涝风险。

Abstract

[Objective] The drought and waterlogging characteristics in the water source & receiving areas of the middle route of the south-to-north water transfer project were studied

and the risk of "both drought " caused by climate change was analyzed and predicted in order to provide a basis for scientific decision-making.[Methods] Based on daily precipitation data of 265 meteorological stations during 1961-2015 and drought & waterlogging data of past 500 years in the middle route of the south-to-north water transfer project region

the drought and waterlogging characteristics in one water source area(the upper reaches of Hanjiang River) and three water receiving areas(Tangbai

Huaihe

and Haihe river basins) were analyzed

and the efficiency of water transfer in three water receiving areas were calculated. This study also investigated the future drought and waterlogging characteristics under the RCP 4.5 scenario based on the simulation results of 21 CMIP 5 global climate models.[Results] ① In the past 500 years

the probability of occurrence of drought decreased first and then increased in the water source area

In the 20th century

the probability of occurrence of drought in the water source area reached highest in the history(31.7%). ② The Huaihe River basin showed the highest efficiency of water transfer(87.3%) while the Tangbai River basin showed the lowest(78.4%). ③ Since the beginning of the 20th century

the unfavorable probability at each river basin and the water source region reached a maximum. The probability of simultaneously occurrence of multi-year droughts in the water source area and Tangbai & Hai river basins is greater than Huai River basins. ④ The water transfer efficiency during the autumn flood season(SON) is the highest

and that in all the 3 basins during the non-flood season is over 80%. ⑤ The efficiency of water transfer in each water receiving area in the future is above 87%.[Conclusion] The synchronous encounter probability of drought in water source & receiving areas in 20th century reaches a maximum in the past 500 years. The simulations show that it will benefit the water transfer of the project in the future. However

in late 21th century

the risk of waterlogging in both the water source and water receiving areas simultaneously will increase.

关键词

Keywords

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