基于孢粉数据的全新世青藏高原降水定量重建

金孙梅; 王英; 侯光良; 李生梅

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.026

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基于孢粉数据的全新世青藏高原降水定量重建

试验研究

- 基于孢粉数据的全新世青藏高原降水定量重建
- Quantitative Reconstruction of Precipitation on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from Holocene Pollen Records
- 水土保持通报 2018年38卷第6期页码：169-176
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海,西宁,810008
  2. 青海省基础地理信息中心,青海,西宁,810001
  3. 青海师范大学青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室,青海,西宁,810008
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  青海省科技厅自然科学基金项目“青藏高原全新世人类活动对环境演变的响应”（2017-ZJ-903）;国家自然科学基金项目“青藏高原史前文化分区及交流路线与环境”（41761018）;青海省地理空间信息技术与应用重点实验室基金项目（2018-006）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.026
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2018
- 稿件说明：
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金孙梅, 王英, 侯光良, 等. 基于孢粉数据的全新世青藏高原降水定量重建[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(6):169-176.

JIN Sunmei, WANG Ying, HOU Guangliang, et al. Quantitative Reconstruction of Precipitation on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from Holocene Pollen Records[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(6): 169-176.
金孙梅, 王英, 侯光良, 等. 基于孢粉数据的全新世青藏高原降水定量重建[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(6):169-176. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.026.

JIN Sunmei, WANG Ying, HOU Guangliang, et al. Quantitative Reconstruction of Precipitation on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from Holocene Pollen Records[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(6): 169-176. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.026.

摘要

[目的] 定量重建青藏高原全新世以来的百年分辨率的降水序列，为青藏高原环境演变及其预测未来的气候情景提供基础数据资料。[方法] 利用青藏高原若尔盖盆地和塔若错湖芯高分辨率孢粉数据，采用加权平均偏最小二乘回归（WAPLS）和现代类比法（MAT）重建了全新世以来青藏高原东、西部的降水变化。[结果] ①高原降水变化明显分为3个阶段，早全新世（10.5～8.9 kaBP）降水呈波动较大，平均降水量略高于现代；中全新世（8.9～3.2 kaBP）是旺盛的湿润期，东西部地区达到极值时间分别是6.7和7.4 kaBP，降水分别高出现代42.4和200 mm。晚全新世（3.2 kaBP以来）期间东部降水持续下降，较前期下降约70 mm，而西部地区降水有所增加，约与现代相当；②降水百年尺度变化：高原降水较少发生时间较为一致，在1.8，3.4，6.2和9.5 kaBP前后。[结论] 全新世早中期高原降水量整体高于现代，全新世晚期东、西部降水量均有下降趋势，在1.2 kaBP左右西部降水出现回升。重建序列与其他高低分辨率环境记录有很好的可比性，说明重建序列有很好的代表性和一定的准确性。

Abstract

[Objective] Quantitative reconstruction of the 100-year resolution precipitation sequence of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since Holocene provides basic data for the environmental evolution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its prediction of future climate scenarios.[Methods] Using the high-resolution spore-pollen data from the Ruergai Basin and Tarongcuo Lake on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau

we reconstructed precipitation changes in the eastern and western plateau since the Holocene by weighted average partial least squares regression(WAPLS) and modern analogue(MAT).[Results] ① The precipitation variation on the plateau was obviously divided into three stages. The precipitation in the early Holocene(10.5~8.9 kaBP) tended to fluctuate

and the average precipitation was slightly higher than that of the modern. The middle Holocene(8.9~3.2 kaBP) was a period of abundant precipitation and the extreme time in the eastern and western regions reached 6.7 kaBP and 7.4 kaBP

respectively

and the precipitation was higher than the modern 42.4 mm and 200 mm respectively. In the later Holocene(after 3.2 kaBP)

the precipitation in the east continued to decrease

which was about 70 mm lower than the previous period

while the precipitation in the west increased

similar to the modern level; ② Precipitation extreme events:the extreme drought events on the plateau were relatively consistent and occurred around 1.8

3.4

6.2 and 9.5 kaBP.[Conclusion] In the early and middle Holocene

the precipitation was generally higher than that in the modern times. At the end of the Holocene

the precipitation in the east and west had a downward trend

and the precipitation in the west increased around 1.2 kaBP. Reconstruction sequences are comparable to the other records with a high or low resolution

which means reconstruction sequences are representative and relatively accurate.

关键词

Keywords

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