利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例

许国钰; 任晓冬; 杨振华; 肖杰; 刘立冰; 高洋

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.04.036

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例

试验研究

- 利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例
- An Analysis on Water Ecological Footprint in Guiyang City and Its Driving Factors Based on STIRPAT Model Using Partial Least Squares and Elastic Net Regression
- 水土保持通报 2018年38卷第4期页码：220-227
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 贵州师范大学喀斯特研究院/国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心,贵州,贵阳,550001
  2. 贵州省山地资源研究所,贵州,贵阳,550001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  贵州省研究生教育创新计划项目“贵州省熊康宁喀斯特环境研究生导师工作室”（黔教研合GZS字[2016]04号）;贵州省十一五科技计划课题“贵州喀斯特石漠化综合防治技术集成与典型模式凝炼和推广”（黔科合SZ （2 008）3077）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.04.036
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2018
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
许国钰, 任晓冬, 杨振华, 等. 利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(4):220-227.

XU Guoyu, REN Xiaodong, YANG Zhenhua, et al. An Analysis on Water Ecological Footprint in Guiyang City and Its Driving Factors Based on STIRPAT Model Using Partial Least Squares and Elastic Net Regression[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(4): 220-227.
许国钰, 任晓冬, 杨振华, 等. 利用弹性网对PLS佐证分析城市水生态足迹及驱动因素——以贵阳市为例[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(4):220-227. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.04.036.

XU Guoyu, REN Xiaodong, YANG Zhenhua, et al. An Analysis on Water Ecological Footprint in Guiyang City and Its Driving Factors Based on STIRPAT Model Using Partial Least Squares and Elastic Net Regression[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(4): 220-227. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.04.036.

摘要

[目的]在分析贵阳市水生态足迹时间序列的基础上，探讨影响贵阳市水生态足迹的驱动因素，评估其水资源可持续利用程度，为水资源的合理利用提供决策参考。[方法]利用水生态足迹理论，计算出2002—2016年贵阳市水生态足迹，水资源承载力和水资源可持续利用指数。再根据环境压力模型STIRPAT建模，并运用偏最小二乘法（PLS）回归对模型进行分析，再利用弹性网回归对PLS进行佐证，分析出影响城市水生态足迹的几个驱动因素。[结果]①2002—2016年贵阳市水生态足迹呈波动式上升趋势，水生态承载力总体上呈波动下降趋势。水资源可持续利用指数在研究时段内都低于1，表明整个城市用水处于不安全状态。②STIRPAT模型进行最小二乘法（LS）回归分析，结果表明模型中4个驱动因素存在多重共线性。③采用PLS回归对STIRPAT模型进行修正，消除驱动因素之间的共线性，但VIP只筛选出人均GDP的二次项、人口两个有意义的驱动因素。④根据弹性网回归对STIRPAT进行分析，人口，人均GDP，第一二产业占总产业比值，城市化率都对贵阳市水生态足迹产生影响。第一二产业占总产业比值和城市化率都与贵阳市的水生态足迹间存在环境EKC假说。[结论]贵阳市在发展经济与推动快速城市化的过程中，必须降低水生态足迹，才是实现水资源可持续利用的关键。

Abstract

[Objective] Based on analyzing the time series of urban water ecological footprint in Guiyang City

this paper made use of the water ecological footprint model to calculate the water ecological footprint and evaluated the sustainable utilization of water resources and to provide some advice for rational utilization of water resources.[Methods] Using water ecological footprint theory

the water ecological footprint

water resources carrying capacity and sustainable utilization index of water resources in Guiyang City from 2002 to 2016 were calculated. Then

according to the environmental pressure model STIRPAT modeling and using partial least squares(PLS) regression and elastic net regression to back up and analyse the driving force factors which affect the water ecological footprint.[Results] ① From 2002 to 2015

as a whole

water ecological footprint in Guiyang City was on the rise. The water ecological carrying capacity was in a large fluctuating range. The water resources sustainable utilization index was lower than 1. The water resource in the whole city was in a insecure state. ② Using LS regression to analyze the STIRPAT model

the results showed that the four driving force factors in the model have multiple collinear. Then

using partial least squares(PLS) to modify the STIRPAT model

the total linearity between the driving force factors was eliminated. But the VIP value only selected two meaningful driver force factors:the quadratic term of per capita GDP and the population. ③ According to the analysis of STIRPAT by elastic net

the results showed that the population

per capita GPD

the first two industries accounted for the ratio of the total industry

and the urbanization rates affected the water ecological footprint of Guiyang City. The water ecological footprint between first two industries accounted for the ratio of the total industry and the urbanization rate both existed the environmental Kuzenets curve.[Conclusion] In the process of developing and promoting rapid urbanization

the water ecological footprint of Guiyang City must be reduced

which is the key to the sustainable development of water resources.

关键词

Keywords

references

Mathis W, William E R. Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital:Economics from an ecological footprint perspective[J]. Ecological Economics, 1997,20(1):3-24.

Wackernagel M, Rees W E. Our ecological footprint:Reducing human impact on the earth[J]. Population & Environment, 1998,1(3):171-174.

Hoekstra A Y, Hung P Q. Virtual water trade:A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international corp trade[J]. Value of Water Research Report Series, 2002,11:239-304.

黄林楠, 张伟新, 姜翠玲,等. 水资源生态足迹计算方法[J]. 生态学报, 2008, 28(3):1279-1286.

潘真真,苏维词,王建伟,等.基于生态系统供给及净化服务功能的贵州省水生态占用研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(7):2786-2796.

胡永红, 吴志峰, 李定强,等. 基于ARIMA模型的区域水生态足迹时间序列分析[J]. 生态环境学报, 2006, 15(1):94-98.

曹坤,刘素霞.上海市水资源生态足迹分析与SVR预测[J].华东师范大学学报:自然科学版,2016,2016(4):139-149.

杨振华,苏维词,赵卫权,等.基于GRNN模型的岩溶地区城市水生态足迹分析与预测[J].中国岩溶,2016,35(1):36-42.

徐建伟.基于水资源水环境双重约束的产业结构优化方法研究[D].北京:中国环境科学研究院,2016.

郭晓娜,苏维词,杨振华,等.城乡统筹背景下重庆市水生态足迹分析及预测[J].灌溉排水学报,2017,36(2):69-75.

王惠文,吴载斌,孟洁.偏最小二乘回归的线性与非线性方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2006.

袁道先,薛禹群,傅家谟,等.防止我国西南岩溶地区地下河变成“下水道”的对策和建议[R].北京:中国科学院院士建议,2007:1-16.

Ayres R U. Commentary on the utility of the ecological footprint concept[J]. Ecological Economics, 2000,3(3):347-349.

于冰,徐琳瑜.城市水生态系统可持续发展评价:以大连市为例[J].资源科学,2014,36(12):2578-2583.

Tang Zhong, Xiang Hao. Analysis of major driving forces of ecological footprint based on the STIRPAT model and RR method: A case of Sichuan Province, Southwest China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2011,8(4):611-618.

燕华,郭运功,林逢春.基于STIRPAT模型分析CO

控制下上海城市发展模式[J].地理学报,2010,65(8):983-990.

杨万平,袁晓玲.环境库兹涅茨曲线假说在中国的经验研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2009,18(8):704-710.

张哲,梁冯珍.基于弹性网回归的居民消费价格指数分析[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报:自然科学版,2013,29(5):592-597.

De Mol C, De Vito E, Rosasco L. Elastic-net regularization in learning theory[J]. Journal of Complexity, 2009,25(2):201-230.

Zou H, Hastie T. Zou H, Hastie T. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2005, 67(2):301-320.

贾俊松.河南生态足迹驱动因素的Hi_PLS分析及其发展对策[J].生态学报,2011,31(8):2188-2195.

肖思思,黄贤金,吴春笃.江苏省生态足迹时间维度变化及其驱动因素分析:基于PLS方法对STIRPAT模型的修正[J].地理与地理信息科学,2012,28(3):76-82.

浏览量

1514

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

黄河流域九省区农业碳排放的驱动因素及预测

西安市工业碳排放的空间分异特征与驱动因子

河南省森林碳汇价值时空特征及其影响因素

不同恢复措施对新疆伊犁退化草地植被特征及多样性的影响

基于CiteSpace的中国荒漠植物多样性研究现状与热点分析