宁夏大学 资源与环境学院,宁夏,银川,750021
纸质出版:2018
移动端阅览
杨蓉, 赵多平. 气候变暖背景下陕甘宁蒙接壤区1961-2015年降水变化响应特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(3):269-274.
YANG Rong, ZHAO Duoping. Response Characteristics of Precipitation Change in Contiguous Areas of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia Under Global Warming From 1961 to 2015[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(3): 269-274.
杨蓉, 赵多平. 气候变暖背景下陕甘宁蒙接壤区1961-2015年降水变化响应特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(3):269-274. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.03.043.
YANG Rong, ZHAO Duoping. Response Characteristics of Precipitation Change in Contiguous Areas of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia Under Global Warming From 1961 to 2015[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(3): 269-274. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.03.043.
[目的]探讨全球变暖背景下陕甘宁蒙接壤区降水量的变化响应特征,为该区自然生态系统和社会经济系统可持续发展提供科学理论依据。[方法]利用陕甘宁蒙接壤区40个气象站点1961-2015年降水量数据资料,采用趋势线拟合,线性倾向估计,普通Kriging插值等数理分析方法,对陕甘宁蒙接壤区54 a的降水量时空变化特征进行分析。[结果]①随着全球变暖,陕甘宁蒙接壤区在54 a间降水量总体略微减少,但近十几年降水量呈现明显上升趋势;②该区年均降水量空间变化大致是沿东南-西北方向呈现由多到少的过渡,年均降水量倾向率空间变化则大致沿东南-西北方向呈现由减少到增加逐步过渡;③54 a间四季降水距平变化趋势为春、夏、冬3季的降水量呈增加趋势,秋季降水量呈减少趋势,变化速率为:夏季 > 冬季 > 春季 > 秋季。四季降水量的空间差异明显,大致都沿东南-西北方向呈现由多到少的逐步过渡趋势。[结论]全球变暖下陕甘宁蒙接壤区54 a来降水量总体略微减少的趋势表明该区域气候具暖干化发展趋势,且季节差异显著。但就2000年以来该区的降水量又呈现明显增加趋势来看,是否该区气候具有由暖干向暖湿转型的大趋势,还需深入研究。
[Objective] To explore the response characteristics of precipitation change in the Shaanxi
Gansu
Ningxia and Inner Mongolia bordering area under global warming in order to provide scientific theoretical basis for the sustainable development of natural ecosystem and social economy in this area.[Methods] Precipitation data was collected from 40 national meteorological stations during the period from 1961 to 2015. The spatial-temporal variation of precipitation in the past 54 years was analyzed
using linear trend estimation
Mann-Kendall mutation test and ordinary Kriging interpolation mathematical analysis methods.[Results] ① With the global warming
the precipitation decreased in the study areas during the past 54 years. ② Spatially
the annual precipitation reduced roughly from the southeast to northwest
and the tendency rate showed a decreasing trend initially and then increased from the southeast to northwest. ③ The changes in precipitation anomaly showed that the precipitation increased in spring
summer and winter
but reduced in autumn
and the rate of precipitation change ranked as:winter > spring > autumn > summer. The spatial differences of precipitation in four different seasons were obvious
which reduced gradually from the southeast to northwest.[Conclusion] A warm-drying trend is expected in the Northern Shaanxi
Gansu
Ningxia and Inner Mongolia contiguous area
and it is obvious in four different seaons. Further studies are needed to confirm whether the climate will transferred from the warm-dry to warm-wet since the precipitation in the region has shown an obvious increasing trend since 2000.
《第二次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会.第二次气候变化国家评估报告[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:20-24.
朱芬萌,安树青,关保华,等.生态交错带及其研究进展[J].生态学报,2007,27(7):3032-3042.
常学礼,赵爱芬,李胜功.生态脆弱带的尺度与等级特征[J].中国沙漠,1999,19(2):115-119.
刘军会,高吉喜.气候和土地利用变化对中国北方农牧交错带植被覆盖变化的影响[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(9):2016-2022.
汪朝辉,王克林,李仁东,等.水陆交错生态脆弱带景观格局时空变化分析:以洞庭湖区为例[J].自然资源学报,2004,19(2):240-247.
马晓波,施雅风,沈永平,等.西北地区近代及历史时期气候变化趋势分析[J].冰川冻土,2003,25(6):672-675.
施雅风,沈永平,胡汝骥.西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(3):219-226.
丁彩霞,延军平,李敏敏.西北地区气候变化与风速响应特征[J].水土保持通报,2014,32(4):134-137.
贾文雄,何元庆,李宗省,等.祁连山及河西走廊气候变化的时空分布特征[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(6):1151-1155.
杨金虎,江志红,魏锋,等.近45 a来中国西北年极端高、低温的变化及对区域性增暖的响应[J].干旱区地理,2006,29(5):625-631.
王遵娅,丁汇,何金海,等.近50 a来中国气候变化特征的再分析[J].气象学报,2004,62(2):228-236.
杨蓉,延军平.宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):272-277.
左洪超,吕川华,胡隐樵.中国近50 a气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):238-244.
李双双,延军平,杨蓉,等气候变暖背景下1961-2010年宁夏旱涝灾害空间分布特征和变化规律[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1552-1559.
赵俊虎,封国林,张世轩,等.近48 a中国的季节变化与极端温度事件的联系[J].物理学报,2011,60(9):842-850.
施雅风.全球和中国变暖特征及未来趋势[J].自然灾害学报,1996(2):5-14.
苏俊礼,汪结华,李江萍,等.巴丹吉林和腾格里沙漠降水特征初步分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(2):261-268.
徐小玲,延军平.近30 a毛乌素沙区的气候与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件的相关分析[J].干旱区研究,2003,20(2):117-122.
0
浏览量
1187
下载量
2
CSCD
关联资源
相关文章
相关作者
相关机构
京公网安备11010802024621