[Objective] To provide reference for management decision of sustainable utilization of water resources

an evaluation and prediction research with respect to the carrying capacity of typical Yaoba oasis water resources was conducted.[Methods] We took 2016 as the actuality year and 2020

2025

2030 as planning level year. According to the oasis development history

current situation and related planning

we forecasted the water demand of each level year. Nine evaluation indexes were selected to construct evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity

and to establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the water resources carrying capacity and made an analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of each level year.[Results] The fuzzy synthetic evaluation value of 2016 was only 0.251 2

which showed the carrying capacity of water resources had reached saturation; in 2030

it will reach on 0.434 4

which is a higher bearing level. However

the development potential of groundwater resources in Yaoba oasis is still limited.[Conclusion] The evaluation result showed that actuality year of water resources carrying capacity was in overload condition and the contradiction of supply and demand of water resources was obvious. The social economy system was the main stress-source of the improvement of water resource carrying capacity. Through taking a series of measures

the future situation of water resources carrying capacity will gradually improve. It need to take comprehensive measures to raise water resources carrying capacity to a higher level

and to build the study area into a harmonious and efficient oasis.