漓江流域洪涝灾害风险评价

姚月锋; 何文; 曾丹娟

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.020

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漓江流域洪涝灾害风险评价

试验研究

- 漓江流域洪涝灾害风险评价
- Assessment of Flood Risk in Lijiang River Watershed
- 水土保持通报 2018年38卷第2期页码：122-126
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 广西壮族自治区中国科学院广西植物研究所,广西,桂林,541006
  2. 广西喀斯特植物保育与恢复生态学重点实验室,广西,桂林,541006
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目“漓江上游流域森林景观格局对土壤水分空间异质性的影响”（41401211）;中科院“西部之光”人才培养计划项目（中科院厅局文件人字[2014]91号）;广西自然科学基金项目（2015GXNSFBA139088）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.020
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2018
- 稿件说明：
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姚月锋, 何文, 曾丹娟. 漓江流域洪涝灾害风险评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(2):122-126.

YAO Yuefeng, HE Wen, ZENG Danjuan. Assessment of Flood Risk in Lijiang River Watershed[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(2): 122-126.
姚月锋, 何文, 曾丹娟. 漓江流域洪涝灾害风险评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2018,38(2):122-126. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.020.

YAO Yuefeng, HE Wen, ZENG Danjuan. Assessment of Flood Risk in Lijiang River Watershed[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(2): 122-126. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.020.

摘要

[目的]探讨漓江流域发生洪涝灾害的可能及其空间分布范围，以期从流域生态水文功能的角度为区域洪涝灾害风险评价研究提供理论基础。[方法]通过基于表层土壤（0-10 cm）最大、最小持水量和流域多年平均降雨量，采用地统计学和空间叠加分析的方法分析漓江流域地表土壤排水能力和年降雨量空间变异格局。[结果]漓江流域表层土壤排水能力的变异系数相比流域多年平均降雨量大，受外界随机性因素影响大，空间结构比降低。桂林市城区、临桂新区与灵川县城区3区交界范围为极易发生洪涝区域，而漓江流域中上游的3个保护区（猫儿山国家级自然保护区、海洋山和青狮潭水源林保护区）为不易发生洪涝灾害区域。[结论]考虑流域下垫面生态水文过程和气候（降雨）变化相结合的方法，能够预测和划分流域洪涝发生风险可能及其空间分布格局。其中，桂林市区与灵川县城交界范围为极易发生洪涝区域。

Abstract

[Objective] The probability of flood occurrence and its risk distribution in Lijiang River watershed were mapped to provide some references for regional flood risk assessment from the aspects of watershed eco-hydrological function.[Methods] The maximum and minimum water holding capacities in surface soil(0-10 cm) and annual rainfall were analyzed using geostatistics and spatial overlay analysis.[Results] The surface soil drain ability(difference between maximum and minimum water holding capacity) and annual rainfall displayed a strong spatial autocorrelation(spatial autocorrelation coefficient > 0.88). But the spatial autocorrelation of surface soil drain ability was controlled by random factors rather than by autocorrelation factors

which resulted to its lower spatial structure in comparison with the one of annual rainfall. The tri-junction area of Guilin urban area

New Lingui District and Lingchuan County has the highest risk of flooding; whereas three nature conservation areas

namely Maoershan National Nature Reserve

Haiyangshan and Qingshitan Water Conservation areas have the lowest risk of flooding.[Conclusion] Considering both the eco-hydrological function of watershed and climate change(mainly referred to rainfall) in this study

we can predict the probability of flood occurrence and map the flood risk distribution in Lijiang River watershed. The junction are of Guilin urban area and Lingchuan County is the flood-prone region. This study hopes to provide a scientific knowledge for regional flood disaster prediction and evaluation

also for prevention and mitigation of flood disaster.

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references

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