[Objective] The growing coal mining scale and depth easily lead to the occurrence of coalmine water disasters. Consequently

to assure coal mining in a safe and efficient way

mine water discharge is needed to be fully understood.[Methods] According to the physiographic

geological conditions of the researched area and water abundance distribution as well

this paper acquired a full knowledge of the hydrogeological condition of mines. By applying the groundwater flow numerical simulation to the 31# coal seam of the first mine area of the No. 2 coal mine of Nalinhe

this paper established a mine discharge forecast model and its sensitivity was analyzed by enumerating different hydrogeological parameters of the permeability media of all levels. Upon that

the amount of the mine discharge has been forecast.[Results] The groundwater table drop depths will be 32.30 m and 47.72 m respectively

the confined groundwater level drop depths will be 530.37 m and 564.63 m respectively

and the mine water yields will be 57 994 m3/d and 86 240 m3/d respectively at the ends of 5th and 11th year.[Conclusion] If the mine drainage in the first mining area is drained and the drop depth get more and more great

the selection of model parameters will have great influence on the prediction results.