云南师范大学 旅游与地理科学学院,云南,昆明,650500
纸质出版:2017
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丁文荣. 变化环境下滇中地区典型流域水资源演变特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2017,37(2):274-277.
DING Wenrong. Evolutions of Water Resources in Typical Basin of Central Yunnan Province Under Changing Environment[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(2): 274-277.
丁文荣. 变化环境下滇中地区典型流域水资源演变特征[J]. 水土保持通报, 2017,37(2):274-277. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.02.041.
DING Wenrong. Evolutions of Water Resources in Typical Basin of Central Yunnan Province Under Changing Environment[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(2): 274-277. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.02.041.
[目的
]
以典型流域为研究对象,揭示变化环境下滇中地区水资源的演变特征,为区域水资源综合管理服务。[方法
]
以滇中地区蜻蛉河流域1963-2012年的月值径流实测资料为基础,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、小波分析和R/S分析等作为主要研究方法。[结果
]
(1)蜻蛉河流域径流量年内分配极不均匀,主要集中在夏秋两季,而冬春两季占全年的百分比均较小;(2)自20世纪60年代以来,蜻蛉河流域径流量总体呈现出了减少的趋势,速率为4.80×10
7
m
3
/10 a,但其变化趋势的尚未达到0.05的显著性水平;(3)研究时段内蜻蛉河流域径流量的变化经历了“多-少-多-少”的演变过程,2010年为一个典型突变年份;(4)从多时间尺度特征来看,蜻蛉河流域径流量变化局域性特点较为突出,没有贯穿整个研究时段的周期性波动,相对较为明显的周期性变化为15 a;(5)蜻蛉河流域年径流量的变化存在比较显著的赫斯特现象,未来持续减少的概率较大。[结论
]
蜻蛉河流域水资源季节性分布不均,年际波动幅度大,未来一段时间内将继续维持减少趋势,需提前做好合理规划。
[Objective] A typical basin was taken as study area
we demonstrated the evolution of water resources in Central Yunnan Province
to supply scientific support for integrated water resources management. [Methods] Runoff data was collected in Qingling River basin of central Yunnan Province. Linear trend estimation
Mann-Kendall non parameter test
wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis were used. [Results] (1) Runoff is extremely non-uniform at the annual scale
and concentrating on the summer and winter. (2) Since 1960s
runoff of Qingling River basin showed a decreasing trend with a of 4.80×107 m3/10 a
but the trend not yet reached the significant level of 0.05. (3) The periodical evolution of runoff experienced“rich-lack-rich-lack”processes
in 2010
an abrupt change occurred. (4) From the aspect of multi-time scale variation
it was locally prominent but not over all covered. Comparatively a 15 year-periodical variation was obvious. (5) A significant Hurst phenomenon existed for annual runoff of Qingling River basin
whereby the decrease probability in the future was great. [Conclusion] Water resources in Qingling River basin are unevenly distributed in seasonal and inter-annual time scale. A decrease trend will continue in the next period
hence rational planning is important.
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