基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究

李秀珍; 张小红

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.039

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基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究

试验研究

- 基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究
- A Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model
- 水土保持通报 2017年37卷第1期页码：219-223
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川,成都,610041
  2. 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川,成都,610041
  3. 重庆川东南地质工程勘察设计院,重庆,400038
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  中国科学院重点部署项目子课题“泥石流动力过程及调控模拟”（KZZD-EW-05-01-02）;国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2015CB452704，2013CB733205）
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.039
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2017
- 稿件说明：
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李秀珍, 张小红. 基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2017,37(1):219-223.

LI Xiuzhen, ZHANG Xiaohong. A Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(1): 219-223.
李秀珍, 张小红. 基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究[J]. 水土保持通报, 2017,37(1):219-223. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.039.

LI Xiuzhen, ZHANG Xiaohong. A Study of Instability Probability of Rainfall-Induced Landslides Based on Mein-Larson Infiltration Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(1): 219-223. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.01.039.

摘要

[目的] 评价降雨诱发浅层滑坡的失稳破坏概率，为相关研究提供理论依据。[方法] 在引入并扩展了Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型的基础上，将Mein-Larson入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法有机结合，建立2种降雨情形（高强度短历时和低强度长历时）下降雨滑坡稳定性的确定性评价模型，然后再将蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与降雨滑坡的确定性评价模型结合，建立降雨滑坡稳定性的概率评价方法。[结果] 提出了1种降雨诱发浅层滑坡失稳的概率评价方法。[结论] 概率评价方法可以描述降雨滑坡发生及发展过程中存在的不确定性，可以计算不同降雨情形下，不同降雨时刻降雨诱发边坡的失稳破坏概率。该方法的评价结果更符合边坡实际情况。

Abstract

[Objective] The objective of the study is to evaluate the instability probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall

and to provide theoretical basis for related research. [Methods] We combine Mein-Larson model with infinite slope stability models of saturated soil by introducing and developing the Mein-Larson infiltration model

and establish deterministic models for rain-induced landslides under short duration rainfall with high intensity and long duration rainfall with low intensity. Then we establish a probability analysis method of the slope instability by combining the deterministic models with Monte Carlo method. [Results] One kind of evaluation method for the failure probability of shallow landslide induced by rainfall was proposed.[Conclusion] The probability method not only can describe the uncertainties in the process of occurrence and development of rain-induced landslides

but also can calculate the instability probability of rain-induced slope instability under the different rainfall time. The assessment results are in high agreement with the actual slope.

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Keywords

references

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