[Objective] Taking Zhangjiakou City as a case

the purpose of this study was to analyze quantitatively the ecological sustainable development of Zhangjiakou City in 2003-2013

and to predict the trend for decision basis of ecological system structure optimization and ecological construction and management.[Methods] Revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint was adopted to calculate its dynamic changes of consumption and supply of all land types from 2003 to 2013. And GM(1

1) gray predictive dynamic model was constructed to predict the trend of ecological sustainable development in the next seven years.[Results] From 2003 to 2013

biocapacity per capita in Zhangjiakou City decreased from 1.460 7 hm2 to 1.321 0 hm2; ecological footprint per capita increased from 2.271 6 hm2 to 5.490 0 hm2; ecological deficit per capita increased from 1.845 9 hm2 to 4.671 9 hm2; ecological footprint depth per capita increased from 5.336 2 hm2 to 7.254 4 hm2

and ecological footprint size per capita increased from 0.425 7 hm2 to 0.747 0 hm2.Meanwhile

ecological footprint per capita of fossil fuel land

construction land

water area

arable land

grassland and forest land showed a trend of increase. Expect for grassland and forest land

ecological carrying capacity per capita of other ecological productive lands were decreasing. Construction land

arable land and forest land presented a state of ecological surplus

and their ecological footprint depth per capita were in natural growth stage. However

fossil fuel land

water area and grassland were in the condition of ecological deficit

ecological footprint depth per capita of water area and grassland present an increasing trend. In the period of 2014-2020

ecological footprint per capita were predicted in a rise trend; whereas

ecological carrying capacity per capita would decline year after year.[Conclusion] Therefore

in order to realize the sustainable development of local economy

society and ecological environment

some major counter measures of reducing ecological deficit and alleviating the pressure of ecological environment should be adopt positively

such as promoting the use of clean energy

controlling the population quantity

increasing the ecological land area

etc.