1. 绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,四川,绵阳,621000
2. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062
纸质出版:2015
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杜华明, 延军平, 杨蓉, 等. 川西高原雪灾时空分布特征及风险评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2015,35(3):261-266.
DU Huaming, YAN Junping, YANG Rong, et al. Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Snow Disaster and Risk Evaluation in Western Sichuan Plateau[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(3): 261-266.
杜华明, 延军平, 杨蓉, 等. 川西高原雪灾时空分布特征及风险评价[J]. 水土保持通报, 2015,35(3):261-266. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.03.054.
DU Huaming, YAN Junping, YANG Rong, et al. Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Snow Disaster and Risk Evaluation in Western Sichuan Plateau[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(3): 261-266. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.03.054.
[目的] 掌握川西高原雪灾的空间格局和发展动向
为灾害相关管理部门提供决策依据。[方法] 以川西高原16个气象站点1961-2012年的逐日气温与降水量资料为基础
采用线性回归、反距离加权空间插值、自然灾害风险指数法
对川西高原雪灾的时空特征和雪灾风险进行研究。[结果] (1) 近52 a来川西高原地区各站点累计大雪、暴雪雪灾频次均呈增加趋势
增加倾向率分别为0.93和0.51次/10 a。(2) 川西高原地区雪灾具有显著的空间差异性。雪灾天气总体呈北方多而南方少的态势。(3) 雪灾发生的高风险区主要集中在石渠、色达、甘孜、红原、若尔盖、康定等地
松潘、理塘为中等风险区
德格、小金、马尔康、新龙、道孚、巴塘、稻城和九龙等地雪灾风险最低。[结论] 川西高原地区雪灾频次和程度均呈加重趋势
应采取有效措施加强对雪灾的防治和管理。
[objective] To master the spatial pattern and trends of snow disaster in Western Sichuan Plateau so as to provide desision basis for management department of disaster.[Methods] By using methods of linear regression
inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation
natural disaster risk index method
the spatial-temporal characteristics and risk of snow disaster were analyzed based on daily temperature and rainfall data of 16 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2012 in Western Sichuan Plateau.[Results] (1) The days of heavy snow and blizzard increased over the last 52 years in Western Sichuan Plateau
the change rates were 0.93 d/10 a and 0.51 d/10 a respectively. (2) The snow disaster had a distinct spatial difference in Western Sichuan Plateau
the days of snow disaster were more in north of Western Sichuan Plateau
and less in south of Western Sichuan Plateau. (3) Shiqu
Seda
Ganzi
Hongyuan
Ruoergai
and Kangding had the highest risk of snow disaster
Songpan and Litang were moderate-risk areas
Dege
XiaoJin
Ma'erkan
Xinlong
Daofu
Batang
Daocheng and Jiulong were low-risk areas.[Conclusion] The frequency and extent of snow disaster were increasing in Western Sichuan Plateau
it should take more effective measures to strengthen the prevention and management of snow disaster.
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