陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062
纸质出版:2015
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王璐璐, 延军平, 李敏敏, 等. 气候暖干化背景下环渤海地区旱涝时空响应[J]. 水土保持通报, 2015,35(2):279-286.
WANG Lulu, YAN Junping, LI Minmin, et al. Drought-flood Responses to Spatial-temporal Variations in Region Around Bohai Sea[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(2): 279-286.
王璐璐, 延军平, 李敏敏, 等. 气候暖干化背景下环渤海地区旱涝时空响应[J]. 水土保持通报, 2015,35(2):279-286. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.02.053.
WANG Lulu, YAN Junping, LI Minmin, et al. Drought-flood Responses to Spatial-temporal Variations in Region Around Bohai Sea[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(2): 279-286. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.02.053.
[目的] 在全球变暖背景下
为深入认识环渤海地区区域响应特征
进而制定防灾减灾政策
提高旱涝灾害应变能力。[方法] 利用环渤海地区60个气象台站1961-2012年的实测气温、降水资料
采用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall检验以及空间插值法揭示环渤海地区气候的时空变化特征;应用Z指数旱涝等级标准和区域旱涝指标分析该区域旱涝灾害的时空响应特征。[结果] (1)环渤海地区近52 a气候总体呈现暖干化趋势
年平均气温显著上升
增温速率为0.25℃/10 a
且于1988年前后发生增温突变;年平均气温南高北低
大部分地区呈增温趋势
且南北增温程度差异不大。(2)降水量呈减少趋势
下降速率为10.37 mm/10 a;降水自东南向西北递减
沿海多于内陆
差异逐渐减小;(3)1988年后
环渤海地区旱涝灾害频率明显增加
其中旱灾显著增加
涝灾略有减少;空间上旱灾比例高于涝灾
且呈现出明显的干旱趋势。[结论] 环渤海地区气候对全球气候变化有所响应
尤其是旱涝灾害
表现出一定的区域特征。
[Objective] Under the background of global warming
this paper focuses on the study of the regional responsive variation characteristics of climate and drought-flood around the Bohai Sea
to make out the disaster prevention and mitigation policy
and to improve the ability of drought and flood disasters strain.[Methods] On the basis of the temperature and precipitation data of 60 meteorological stations located around the Bohai Sea from 1961 to 2012
using the linear trend method
Mann-Kendall mutation test and spatial interpolation method
we attempted to reveal the spatial-temporal variations characteristics of climate; regional drought and waterlogging were graded using the Z index and then the temporal-spatial responses of them were elucidated.[Results] (1) It had experienced an apparent trend of climate warming and drying in the region around the Bohai Sea. The warming rate was 0.25℃/10 a. In the years of 1988 around
an abrupt temperature rise occurred. The warming rate had small and insignificant difference between the north and south of that region although the temperature between the two sub-regions was significantly different. (2) Precipitation had witnessed a decreasing trend with a rate of 10.37 mm/10 a. From southeast to northwest
from coastal regions to inlands
precipitation decreased spatially while differences of the temporal decreasing rate among the sub-regions was small. (3) After 1988
frequency of drought-flood disasters showed an apparent increasing trend around Bohai Sea. Drought occurred more frequently than flooding and more sub-regions underwent drought over than waterlogging around the Bohai Sea. Overall
the region had an obvious trend of drought.[Conclusion]The climate in the region around the Bohai Sea had responded to global climate change. Especially
drought and flood disasters showed a regional style.
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