基于GIS与Logistic模型的公路泥石流易发性分析

邹强; 王青; 刘延国

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

基于GIS与Logistic模型的公路泥石流易发性分析

试验研究

- 基于GIS与Logistic模型的公路泥石流易发性分析
- Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model
- 水土保持通报 2014年33卷第3期页码：185-189
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川,绵阳,621010
  2. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川,成都,610041
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  四川省科技支撑计划项目"川藏交通干线四川段泥石流灾害风险评估研究"(2012SZ0075);中国科学院"西部之光"人才培养计划项目"川藏交通干线泥石流灾害风险评估"(Y3R2440440)
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2014
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
邹强, 王青, 刘延国. 基于GIS与Logistic模型的公路泥石流易发性分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2014,33(3):185-189.

ZOU Qiang, WANG Qing, LIU Yan-guo. Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2014, 33(3): 185-189.
邹强, 王青, 刘延国. 基于GIS与Logistic模型的公路泥石流易发性分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2014,33(3):185-189. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036.

ZOU Qiang, WANG Qing, LIU Yan-guo. Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2014, 33(3): 185-189. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036.

摘要

分析了泥石流形成与演化的物质条件、能量条件和环境条件。选取坡度、高程、坡面粗糙度、地层岩性、距断裂距离、地震烈度、土地利用类型作为泥石流易发性评价因子

引入Logistic回归分析方法

建立了泥石流易发性分析模型。定量分析了G318川藏公路段泥石流易发性

结果表明

该公路全线大部分处于泥石流中高易发区

其中

高易发区与中易发区占总面积的78.61%

主要分布在大渡河、澜沧江、金沙江、怒江、帕隆藏布江等大江大河的峡谷区段

这些地区在公路修复和规划重建中应做好泥石流的预测、预报及防治。

Abstract

The formation conditions of debris flow were analyzed and the seven key indexes of hill slope

elevation

hill surface roughness

rock stratum

distance to faults

seismic intensity of earthquake and land use type were chosen for evaluating the susceptibility of debris flow. A model of debris flow susceptibility was established by introducing logistic regression

and the evaluation and mapping of debris flow susceptibility were completed for the highways. Subsequently

this proposed method was applied in a case study carried out on the Sichuan-Tibet section of national highway G318. Analysis of debris flow susceptibility for the whole highway showed that 78.61% of the total study area was situated in debris flow-prone areas

including the canyon areas of Dadu

Lanchang

Jinsha

Nu and Palongzangbu Rivers. It is suggested that sufficient attentions should be paid in debris flow forecast and prevention in road reconstruction and line selection for new highway.

关键词

Keywords

references

唐邦兴,柳素清,刘世建.中国泥石流分布及其灾害危险区划图[M].成都:成都地图出版社,1991.

崔鹏,陈晓清,程尊兰,等.西藏泥石流滑坡监测与防治[J].自然杂志,2010,32(1):19-25.

Carrara A. Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation[J]. Mathematical Geology, 1983,15(3):403-426.

Montgomery D R, Dietrich W E. A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding[J]. Water Resource Research, 1994,30(4):1157-1171.

Chung C F, Fabbri A G. Probabilistic Prediction models for landslide hazard mapping[J]. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 1999,65(12):1388-1399.

Cascini L. Applicability of landslide susceptibility and hazard zoning at different scales[J]. Engineering Geology, 2008,102(3):164-177.

Rapolla A, Nocera S D, Matano F, et al. Susceptibility regional zonation of earthquake-induced landslides in Campania, Southern Italy[J]. Natural Hazards, 2012,61(1):115-126.

唐川.云南怒江流域泥石流敏感性空间分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):178-185.

邹强,崔鹏,张建强,等.长江上游地区泥石流灾害敏感性量化评价研究[J].环境科学与技术,2012,35(3):159-167.

罗德富,朱平一,陈瑞,等.川藏公路南线(西藏境内)山地灾害及防治对策[M].北京:科学出版社,1995.

蒋忠信.西藏帕隆藏布河谷崩塌滑坡、泥石流的分布规律[J].地理研究,2002,21(4):495-503.

何易平,胡凯衡,韦方强,等.川藏公路迫隆藏布流域段泥石流活动特征[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(3):76-80.

游勇,程尊兰,胡平华,等.西藏古乡沟泥石流模型试验研究[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(1):52-58.

朱平一,程尊兰.川藏公路培龙沟泥石流输砂堵江成因探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):80-83.

李德基,游勇.西藏波密米堆冰湖溃决浅议[J].山地学报,1992,10(4):219-224.

朱阿兴,裴韬,乔建平,等.基于专家知识的滑坡危险性模糊评估方法[J].地理科学进展.2006,25(4):1-12.

Ouri A E, Amirian S. Landslide hazard zonation using MR and AHP methods and GIS techniques in Langan watershed, Ardabil, Iran[C]//International conference on ACRS. Beijing, China, 2009:19-22.

Ayalew L, Yamagishi H, Ugawa N. Landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS-based weighted linear combination:The case in Tsugawa area of Agano River, Niigata Prefecture, Japan[J]. Landslides, 2004(1):73-81.

兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.

Lee S, Ryu J H, Lee M J, et al. Use of an artificial neural network for analysis of the susceptibility to landslides at Boun, Korea[J]. Environmental Geology, 2003,44(7):820-833.

Ayalew L, Yamagishi H. The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan[J]. Geomorphology, 2005,65(1):15-31.

王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型:方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.

浏览量

1372

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

基于人工智能模型的小流域沟道漂木识别方法

泥石流拦砂坝对村镇建筑的减灾效果评价

建筑弃土场物料成分对强降雨诱发泥石流灾害的影响

流域环境退化对山区铁路泥石流的影响机理研究

区域兼业农户水土保持行为特征及决策模型研究