Based on the data observed from 11 meteorological stations in Ningxia Region from 1960 to 2012

the characteristics of climate change were analyzed and the trends of droughts and floods were forecasted with methods of linear regression

Z index

Mann-Kendall mutation test and Markov model. Results indicated as follows: (1) Ningxia regional climate changes experienced the three periods of cold-wet

warm-wet and warm-dry during the recent 52 years. The temperature fluctuations showed a significant upward trend with a rate of 0.36 ℃/10 a

far higher than the average warming rate(0.2 ℃/10 a) in Western China. The precipitation fluctuations showed a downward trend with a decreasing rate of 9.94 mm/10 a. (2) The frequencies of droughts and floods and temperature changes occurred with a certain synchronicity: from the 1960s to 1980s

the change of temperature was not significant and the tendencies of droughts and floods were stable; from the mid-1980s to 2006

temperature increased substantially and droughts and floods increased simultaneously; and from 2006 to 2012

warming trend occurred and the occurrence of droughts and floods was reduced correspondingly. (3) The state of droughts and floods in the next 5 years was forecasted using the Markov model. From 2013 to 2017

the probability of normal precipitation will be larger in Ningxia Region. In the backgrounds of warming and drying climate

the frequencies of droughts and floods are likely to increase further in the future.