基于灰色理论的吴起县适宜退耕还林面积的预测

吴坚; 毕华兴; 刘广亮; 陈攀攀

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基于灰色理论的吴起县适宜退耕还林面积的预测

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- 基于灰色理论的吴起县适宜退耕还林面积的预测
- Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Wuqi County Based on Grey Theory
- 水土保持通报 2009年28卷第1期页码：108-110
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京,100083
  2. 吴起县退耕还林工程管理办公室, 陕西吴起,717600
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  国家重点基础研究发展计划“西北黄土残塬沟壑区水土流失综合调控原理与治理范式”(2007CB407207)
- DOI：
  中图分类号：
- 纸质出版：2009
- 稿件说明：
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吴坚, 毕华兴, 刘广亮, 等. 基于灰色理论的吴起县适宜退耕还林面积的预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2009,28(1):108-110.

WU Jian, BI Hua-xing, LIU Guang-liang, et al. Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Wuqi County Based on Grey Theory[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2009, 28(1): 108-110.
吴坚, 毕华兴, 刘广亮, 等. 基于灰色理论的吴起县适宜退耕还林面积的预测[J]. 水土保持通报, 2009,28(1):108-110. DOI：

WU Jian, BI Hua-xing, LIU Guang-liang, et al. Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Grain for Forest and Grass Project in Wuqi County Based on Grey Theory[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2009, 28(1): 108-110. DOI：

摘要

吴起县是我国退耕还林草政策推行重点县

退耕比例高达38.3%。如何在保证粮食产量安全的前提下继续推行退耕还林草政策是人们广泛关注的焦点。根据1999-2005年吴起县统计年鉴资料

分析了退耕还林草对当地粮食产量和粮食需求量关系影响

认为可以继续推行退耕还林草工程。假定未来几年条件相同的情况下

运用灰色理论的GM(1

1)预测模型

建立了粮食总产、人口、粮食单产和人均粮食消费的预测模型。利用这些预测模型预测了2008-2012年的各年适宜的退耕还林面积

旨在为吴起县实施退耕还林草工程提供科学参考。

Abstract

Wuqi County is a major county to implement the grain for forest and grass(GFG) project in China

with the percentage of the GFG area reaching as much as 38.3%.So

how to sufficiently guarantee the amount of grain production and continue practicing the GFG is extensively concerned by people.The study is based on the statistical data of Wuqi County from 1999 to 2005.The GFG project affects the relationship between the volume of grain output and demands.It is believed that the GFG project can keep on performing.On the assumption that all conditions are same in the future years

predicting models of total output

population

unit area output

and grain consumption per capita are constructed by using grey predicting method GM(1

1).Using these models

the suitable area for the GFG project from 2008 to 2012 is calculated

which provides a scientific basis for the development of Wuqi County.

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