Based on the historical documents of Wulate County from 1957to 2006

we analyzed the features and status of the cultivated land

and found that almost no more arable land could be found in the area and the conflict between man and land had been increasingly apparent.Principal compon-ent analysis was conducted to identify social economic factors influencing cultivated land changes.The results show that the growth of popul-ation along with economic development

and the modernization level of cultivation are the two major driving forces.Furthermore

the GM(1

1) model was applied to predict cultivated land area and gross population of Wulate County in 2010

2015and 2020

respectively.The prediction indicates a continuously increasing population companying by a continuously reducing area of cultivated land

implying a more severe conflict between man and land.The findings could provide scientific bases for protecting and urging sustainable usage of cultivated land in this region.