1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
2. 中国科学院研究生院
3. 绵阳师范学院资源与环境工程学院
纸质出版:2012
移动端阅览
鲁春霞, 马聪, 李亦秋, 等. 猫跳河流域气象水文因素的变化趋势分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2012,31(6):262-267.
LU Chun-xia, MA Cong, LI Yi-qiuv, et al. Trend Detection of Hydrometeorological Variables in Maotiaohe Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2012, 31(6): 262-267.
以我国第一条全流域梯级水电开发的河流猫跳河为对象
系统分析了猫跳河流域主要气象水文变量的基本情势
分析了各因素的变化趋势。利用紧邻猫跳河流域的贵阳、安顺和黔西地区的3个气象站近60a的逐日气象观测数据
采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall法检测其变化趋势
利用FAO56方法计算了流域参考作物的蒸散发状况。结果表明:(1)流域多年平均降水量在1 000~1 300mm之间
没有显著的变化趋势;(2)在过去60a
流域平均气温累计上升约0.4~1.0℃
呈现一定程度的暖化趋势;(3)流域的平均年日照时数在1 200~1 300h之间
且呈现明显的下降趋势
大致以8~10h/a的速率递减;(4)流域日参考作物蒸发在2.5~2.7mm/d之间。多年平均参考作物蒸发在900~1 000mm之间。年参考作物蒸发下降趋势显著
与日照时数的减小相一致。猫跳河流域总体上呈现一定程度的暖化现象
但气候变化对水资源的影响程度有限。
The Maotiaohe River is the first river in China which has been completely developed for hydropower in a cascade manner.In this study
we systematically analyzed the regimes of hydrometeorological variables and detected their possible trends.Meteorological and hydrological observations on a daily basis were obtained at three weather stations in the vicinity of the Maotiaohe Basin for the period of the 1950-2010.Linear regression and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend detection technique were applied.In addition
daily reference crop evapotranspiration was calculated based on the FAO56 equation.The results showed that the mean annual precipitation ranged 1 000-1 300 mm/a in the watershed
while no statistically significant temporal trend was detected.The temperature of the watershed increased about 0.4-1.0 ℃ over the past 60 years
exhibiting a warming trend.The mean annul sunshine hour ranged 1 200-1 300 h/a
showing a decreasing trend at a rate of 8-10 h/a.Daily crop evapotranspiration was found to be 2.5-2.7 mm/d and mean annual reference crop evapotranspiration ranged 900-1 000 mm/a over the study period
displaying a decreasing trend over time.The decrease of evaportranspiration was closely correlated with the trend in sunshine hour.Overall
the Maotiaohe River watershed showed a slightly warming trend
which did however have not resulted in a significant impact yet on water resources of this watershed.
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