Taking Jiangsu Province as an example

an index system of social-economic system was established based on the analysis on the time series of ecological deficit(ED) from 1985 to 2009.An ED dynamic prediction model was then developed using the conjunction of STIRAPT model

VIP value and the partial least square regression(PLS) method.The results demonstrated that the ED of Jiangsu in the plan period of "the 12th five-year plan" could increase from 1.156 1×108 hm2 in 2009 to 1.418 4×108 hm2 in 2015.ED per capita could also increase from 1.496 7 hm2 to 1.768 8 hm2 in the same time period

significantly higher than the global level(0.400 0 hm2).The classical environmental Kuznets curve(EKC) hypothesis could not explain well in the ED of Jiangsu Province.The VIP values showed that the many factors exerted strong influences

in an descending order of significance on ED as: ratios of primary and secondary industry in GDPtotal cultivated areaGDP per capitastudent to teacher ratio in higher educationbed number in health care unitsvolume of goods transportationtotal population.Based on these analyses

recommendations including transforming economic growth pattern

increasing total cultivated area

controlling the volume of goods transportation

and restraining rapid population growth

were proposed to slow down the increment of ED and to achieve the long-term development goals in Jiangsu Province.