Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of natural capital utilization in countries participating in Silk Road Initiative

Yang Guangming; Li Darong; Qin Yizhi; Sheng Hongxia; Peng Guochuan

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.06.034

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Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of natural capital utilization in countries participating in Silk Road Initiative

Comprehensive Researches

- Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of natural capital utilization in countries participating in Silk Road Initiative
- Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation Vol. 45, Issue 6, Pages: 298-308(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.重庆理工大学管理学院，重庆 400054
  2.重庆社会科学院生态安全与绿色发展研究中心，重庆 400020
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.06.034
  CLC： X 22
- CSTR：32312.14.stbctb.2025.06.034
- Received：16 May 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-08-23，
  
  Published：10 December 2025
- 稿件说明：
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杨光明, 李大容, 秦艺支，等.“一带一路”共建国家自然资本利用时空演变特征及影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):298-308.

Yang Guangming, Li Darong, Qin Yizhi, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of natural capital utilization in countries participating in Silk Road Initiative [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,45(6):298-308.
杨光明, 李大容, 秦艺支，等.“一带一路”共建国家自然资本利用时空演变特征及影响因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(6):298-308. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.06.034. CSTR： 32312.14.stbctb.2025.06.034.

Yang Guangming, Li Darong, Qin Yizhi, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of natural capital utilization in countries participating in Silk Road Initiative [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,45(6):298-308. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.06.034. CSTR： 32312.14.stbctb.2025.06.034.

摘要

目的

揭示“一带一路”共建国家自然资本利用的时空演化规律及驱动机制，为区域可持续发展提供科学支撑。

方法

基于改进的三维生态足迹模型，融合空间自相关分析与Tobit回归，构建“时空演变—空间关联—驱动机制”多维评估框架。

结果

①人均生态足迹广度呈现梯度差异格局，新加坡始终为最低，而蒙古及拉脱维亚交替占据最高值； ②生态足迹深度两极分化明显，新加坡长期为极高水平，俄罗斯等国维持基准值； ③三维生态足迹呈现“发达国家高，发展中国家低”的分化格局，中国因能效优化增速趋缓，为发展中国家提供转型范式； ④空间关联呈现动态强化特征，Moran’s

指数从0.142升至0.298，俄罗斯等区域存在“高-高集聚”，南亚国家则以“低-低集聚”为主，中国空间关联由“低-高”向不显著转变； ⑤城镇化率、贸易开放度、可再生能源占比及生态承载力对三维足迹具有显著正向驱动作用，而净初级生产力和外商直接投资则呈抑制作用。

结论

“一带一路”共建国家自然资本利用呈现显著的空间异质性及路径依赖，需通过协调城镇化生态边界、优化贸易生态成本分配及破解可再生能源技术锁定等策略，推动差异化治理，实现自然资本的可持续利用。

Abstract

Objective

The spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of natural capital utilization in countries participating in the Silk Road Initiative were analyzed in order to provide scientific support for regional sustainable development.

Methods

Based on an improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model， this research integrates spatial autocorrelation analysis and Tobit regression to construct a multidimensional evaluation framework of ‘spatiotemporal evolution-spatial correlation-driving mechanisms’.

Results

① The per capita ecological footprint breadth showed a gradient differentiation pattern， with Singapore consistently having the lowest， while Mongolia and Latvia having the highest values. ② The ecological footprint depth exhibited significant polarization， with Singapore maintaining an extremely high level over the long term， while countries such as Russia at the baseline value. ③ The three-dimensional ecological footprint displayed a differential pattern of ‘high in developed countries and low in developing countries’. However， owing to energy efficiency optimization， China’s growth rate had slowed， providing a transformation paradigm for developing countries. ④ The spatial correlation demonstrated dynamic strengthening characteristics， with Moran’s I index increasing from 0.142 to 0.298. Regions such as Russia showed ‘high-high aggregation’， while South Asian countries were primarily characterized by ‘low-low aggregation’. China’s spatial correlation had shifted from ‘low-high’ to ‘insignificant’. ⑤ Urbanization rate， trade openness， renewable energy share， and ecological carrying capacity had considerable positive driving effects on the three-dimensional footprint， whereas net primary productivity and foreign direct investment exhibit inhibitory effects.

Conclusion

The utilization of natural capital in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative shows significant spatial heterogeneity and path dependence. Differentiated governance strategies， such as coordinating the ecological boundaries of urbanization， optimizing the allocation of ecological costs in trade， and overcoming technological lock-ins in renewable energy are required to promote the sustainable use of natural capital.

关键词

Keywords

references

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