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1.新疆农业大学 公共管理学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
2.吉林艺术学院, 吉林 长春 130012
Received:25 February 2025,
Revised:2025-07-12,
Published:10 October 2025
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付文凯, 韩博宇, 马瑛.塔里木河流域耕地利用绿色转型与粮食绿色全要素生产率耦合协调及其驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):384-395.
Fu Wenkai, Han Boyu, Ma Ying. Coupling coordination and driving factors of green transition of farmland use and green total factor productivity of grain in Tarim River basin [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,45(5):384-395.
付文凯, 韩博宇, 马瑛.塔里木河流域耕地利用绿色转型与粮食绿色全要素生产率耦合协调及其驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(5):384-395. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.05.033. CSTR: 32312.14.stbctb.2025.05.033..
Fu Wenkai, Han Boyu, Ma Ying. Coupling coordination and driving factors of green transition of farmland use and green total factor productivity of grain in Tarim River basin [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,45(5):384-395. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.05.033. CSTR: 32312.14.stbctb.2025.05.033..
目的
2
分析资源环境双重约束下,塔里木河流域耕地利用绿色转型与粮食绿色全要素生产率的耦合协调关系及其驱动因素时空演变,为该流域农业绿色转型提供理论依据。
方法
2
基于耕地利用和粮食生产数据,结合碳排放和面源污染系数,运用熵值法、Super-EBM和耦合协调度模型探究塔里木河流域2000—2021年耕地利用绿色转型与粮食绿色全要素生产率耦合协调水平的时空演变趋势,并借助时空地理加权回归模型分析其驱动因素。
结果
2
①研究期内塔里木河流域各地州耕地利用绿色转型和粮食绿色全要素生产率普遍处于高度耦合阶段,协调度总体偏低,协调类型从一般协调转变为良好协调,耦合协调度总体呈上升趋势,均值由0.643上升到0.872,增幅为35.6%,耦合协调类型从初级协调发展为良好协调。 ②空间上,耦合协调水平呈现中部高、东西低的分布特征,地区差异呈现波动变化趋势。 ③驱动因素具有阶段性特征,自然因素由负转正并波动变化,经济因素由正向转为负向驱动,社会因素则经历正负交替波动。
结论
2
建议塔里木河流域响应农业绿色发展理念,实施空间适配性治理策略,促进技术-制度协同创新,推动耕地利用绿色转型与粮食绿色全要素生产率耦合协调发展。
Objective
2
The coupling and coordination relationship between green transition of farmland use and green total factor productivity of grain under the dual constraints of resources and environment, as well as the spatiotemporal evolution of driving factors were analyzed, in order to provide theoretical support for agricultural green transition in the region.
Methods
2
Based on arable land use and grain production data, combined with carbon emissions and non-point source pollution coefficients, the spatiotemporal evolution trend of the coupling coordination level of green transition of farmland use and green total factor productivity of grain in the Tarim River basin from 2000 to 2021 was analyzed using the entropy method, Super-EBM model, and coupling coordination degree model. The driving factors were analyzed using spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model.
Results
2
① During the study period, the green transition of farmland use and green total factor productivity of grain in various prefectures in the Tarim River Basin were generally in a highly coupled stage. The coordination level was generally low, and the coordination type improved from general to good coordination. The overall coupling coordination showed an upward trend, with the average value rising from 0.643 to 0.872, an increase of 35.6%. The coupling coordination type progressed from primary to good coordination. ② Spatially, the coupling coordination level showed a distribution pattern of high in the middle and low in the east and west, with regional differences showing a fluctuation trend. ③ The driving factors showed stage-specific characteristics: natural factors turned from negative to positive and fluctuated, economic factors turned from positive to negative drivers, and social factors experienced alternating positive and negative fluctuations.
Conclusion
2
It is recommended that the Tarim River basin embraces the concept of green agricultural development, implements spatially adaptive governance strategies, promotes collaborative innovation in technology and institutions, and drives the coupled and coordinated development of green transition of farmland use and green total factor productivity of grain.
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