Analysis on runoff evolution characteristics and driving factors in source region of Yellow River by using WEP-ISF model

Sun Junwen; Huang Yuefei; Gan Yongde; Wu Yushuai; Liu Huan

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.04.008

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Analysis on runoff evolution characteristics and driving factors in source region of Yellow River by using WEP-ISF model

Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring and Applied Technology

- Analysis on runoff evolution characteristics and driving factors in source region of Yellow River by using WEP-ISF model
- Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation Vol. 45, Issue 4, Pages: 173-183(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.青海大学土木水利学院，青海西宁 810016
  2.黄河上游生态保护与高质量发展;实验室，青海西宁810016
  3.水利部江河源区水生态治理与保护重点实验室，青海西宁;810016
  4.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室北京 100038
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.04.008
  CLC： P333
- CSTR：32312.14.stbctb.2025.04.008.
- Received：03 January 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-03-23，
  
  Published：20 August 2025
- 稿件说明：
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孙君文, 黄跃飞, 甘永德，等.基于WEP-ISF模型的黄河源区径流演变特征及其驱动因素分析[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(4):173-183.

Sun Junwen, Huang Yuefei, Gan Yongde, et al. Analysis on runoff evolution characteristics and driving factors in source region of Yellow River by using WEP-ISF model [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,45(4):173-183.
孙君文, 黄跃飞, 甘永德，等.基于WEP-ISF模型的黄河源区径流演变特征及其驱动因素分析[J].水土保持通报,2025,45(4):173-183. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.04.008. CSTR： 32312.14.stbctb.2025.04.008..

Sun Junwen, Huang Yuefei, Gan Yongde, et al. Analysis on runoff evolution characteristics and driving factors in source region of Yellow River by using WEP-ISF model [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2025,45(4):173-183. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.04.008. CSTR： 32312.14.stbctb.2025.04.008..

摘要

目的

量化径流深中各因素产流量的贡献率及构成，分析黄河源区下垫面、气候和工农业用水变化对径流变化的贡献率，为黄河流域生态环境保护和水资源开发提供参考。

方法

基于1970—2021年黄河源区气象水文数据，利用分布式水热耦合模型WEP-ISF分析不同时期黄河源区月均流量及其实际蒸散发、土壤温度、土壤含水量和径流成分动态变化过程，并运用多因素归因分析方法定量剖析各影响因素对径流量变化的贡献。

结果

①利用WEP-ISF模型对黄河源区1970—2021年流域水文及水热变化过程模拟验证，其土壤温度模拟值与遥感解译值的平均绝对百分比误差为69.78%~171.55%，Nash效率系数均超过0.70；土壤表层含水量模拟值与遥感解译值的平均绝对百分比误差为13.94%~20.97%，Nash效率系数基本达到0.5以上；月平均流量模拟值与实测值Nash效率系数和平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.80和25.85%；实际蒸散发模拟值与遥感解译值Nash效率系数和平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.80和53.39%。②冰川、融雪和降水产流多年平均为0.9，14.9，70.5 mm，分别占黄河源区径流深的1.0%，17.3%和81.7%。变化期1991—2021年相比于基准期1970—1990年，冰川、融雪和降水产流变化量分别为1.48，-3.8，-13.2 mm，这三者对黄河源区总径流深变化量的贡献率分别为9.53%，-24.48%和-85.05%。③唐乃亥多年平均径流量减少6.77×10

，其中气候、下垫面以及工农业用水变化影响的贡献率分别为96.46%，2.49%和1.05%。

结论

在影响黄河源区径流变化的诸多因素中，气候因素是导致黄河源区径流衰减的主要驱动因子，其具体表现为冰川融水产流呈现增多趋势，而融雪产流和降水产流呈减少趋势。

Abstract

Objective

The contribution rates and composition of each factor in runoff depth were quantified to analyze the contribution rates of underlying surface， climate， and industrial and agricultural water use change to runoff change in the source region of the Yellow River， in order to provide references for ecological environment protection and water resource development in the Yellow River basin.

Methods

Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of the source region of the Yellow River from 1970 to 2021， the distributed water-heat coupled model WEP-ISF was used to analyze the dynamic changes in monthly average flow， actual evapotranspiration， soil temperature， soil moisture content and runoff components in different periods in the source region of the Yellow River， and the multi-factor attribution analysis method was used to quantitatively analyze the contribution of each influencing factor to the variation in runoff volume.

Results

① Simulation and verification of the hydrological and water-heat change process in the source region of the Yellow River from 1970 to 2021 by using the WEP-ISF model showed that the average absolute percentage error between the simulated soil temperature and remote sensing interpreted value was between 69.78% and 171.55%， and the Nash efficiency coefficient was more than 0.70； the average absolute percentage error between the simulated surface soil moisture content and remote sensing interpreted value was between 13.94% and 20.97%， and the Nash efficiency coefficient was more than 0.5； the Nash efficiency coefficient and average absolute percentage error between the simulated monthly average flow and measured value were 0.80 and 25.85%， respectively； and the Nash efficiency coefficient and average absolute percentage error between the simulated actual evapotranspiration and remote sensing interpreted value were 0.80 and 53.39%， respectively. ② The multi-year average runoff from glaciers， snowmelt， and precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River was 0.9， 14.9， and 70.5 mm， accounting for 1.0%， 17.3%， and 81.7%， respectively， of the runoff depth in the source region of the Yellow River. Compared with the baseline period of 1970—1990， the change in runoff from glaciers， snowm

elt and precipitation during the change period of 1991—2021 was 1.48， -3.8， and -13.2 mm， respectively， accounting for 9.53%， -24.48%， and -85.05%， respectively， of the change in the runoff depth of the source region of the Yellow River. ③ The multi-year average runoff at Tangnaihai decreased by 6.77×10

， among which the contribution rates of climate， underlying surface， and industrial and agricultural water use changes were 96.46%， 2.49%， and 1.05%， respectively.

Conclusion

Among the many factors affecting runoff change in the source region of the Yellow River， climate is the main driving factor leading to runoff attenuation， which is manifested in the trend of increasing glacier melt water flow and decreasing trend of snowmelt runoff and runoff.

关键词

Keywords

references

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